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Crypto Economy Hovers Below $3T: Analyst Says First Bear Marker ‘Would Be a Capitalization Drop Under $2.38T’

Crypto Economy Hovers Below $3T: Analyst Says First Bear Marker 'Would Be a Capitalization Drop Under $2.38T'

The crypto asset economy has been down in value over the last week as a great number of digital currencies shed significant amounts. The entire crypto-economy is down under the $3 trillion mark, hovering around $2.7 trillion across 10,970 cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin dominance is just above the 40% region while ethereum’s market commands 18.4% of the crypto economy on Monday.

Analyst Notes a Few Possible Factors May Have Contributed to the Market’s Slide

Digital currency markets have seen better days and on Monday, November 22, 2021, bitcoin (BTC) is down 9.7% during the last seven days. At press time, a single bitcoin is exchanging hands for just above the $58K per unit zone and the asset has a market valuation of around $1.11 trillion. Ethereum (ETH) has lost 7.4% this past week and is currently swapping for under $4,300 per ether. The biggest loser out of the top ten market caps this week was polkadot (DOT) with a 12.3% loss. Solana (SOL) lost the least amount of value dropping 6.7% and avalanche (AVAX) entered the top ten standings gaining 41.0% this week.

Crypto Economy Hovers Below $3T: Analyst Says First Bear Marker 'Would Be a Capitalization Drop Under $2.38T'
BTC/USD via Bitstamp on November 22, 2021.

In a note sent to Bitcoin.com News, Etoro’s market analyst Simon Peters explained that there were a few factors that may have contributed to the market’s downward drop. “Bitcoin and a host of other crypto assets fell precipitously last week, with a few possible factors in play,” Simon Peters said. “Firstly, the Taproot upgrade to the bitcoin blockchain created uncertainty in the investor community. Perhaps the most important upgrade in the past four years for the network, Taproot was meant to streamline the crypto asset’s transactions, making them faster and cheaper. Upgrades of this nature can cause short-term uncertainty as investors hold fire to see what will happen to the network,” Peters added.

The Etoro analyst continued:

Also affecting price levels recently is the U.S. infrastructure bill. The bill, led by President Joe Biden, could see companies subjected to stricter rules around the reporting and handling of crypto assets, and this has fed into further investor uncertainty. Finally, with bitcoin and other crypto-assets having reached fresh all-time highs, there was always likely to be a measure of profit-taking from investors which then translates into price weakness. Both bitcoin and ethereum go from strength to strength, and the ups and downs of the market are a part of this story.

Alex Kuptsikevich: ‘Bear Market Would Be a Capitalization Drop Under $2.38 Trillion’

Alex Kuptsikevich, the Fxpro senior market analyst, detailed in a morning crypto market analysis that bitcoin (BTC) markets are bearish. “The technical picture for bitcoin is on the bearish side,” Kuptsikevich explained to Bitcoin.com News.

Crypto Economy Hovers Below $3T: Analyst Says First Bear Marker 'Would Be a Capitalization Drop Under $2.38T'
ETH/USD via Bitstamp on November 22, 2021.

“After Friday’s technical rebound, the first cryptocurrency hit resistance at the weekend in the form of the 50-day moving average and the 76.4% retracement level from the September-November rally. Stronger selling from this level suggests a short-term trend reversal and a set-up for a deeper and longer correction,” Kuptsikevich added.

Kuptsikevich further stated:

The first marker of a bear market would be a capitalisation drop under $2.38trn, which is 8% below current levels. For Bitcoin, such a level is near $55k, representing a 20% drop from the peak, a return to the highs of September, and 61.8% of the last rising momentum. An overcoming of these levels would signal a further drawdown of 20-30%.

Huobi Group Analyst: Bitcoin’s Future Price ‘Highly Uncertain’

Du Jun, the co-founder of Huobi Group explained that BTC has “strong support at $57,500” but the “price of BTC is highly uncertain.”

“According to data from Huobi Global, BTC fell quickly to the $57,500 position during daytime and was hindered,” the Huobi Group analyst noted on Monday. “Looking at the 4h K-line, the three EMA lines are descending at different ranges, and the slope of EMA5 is the largest, implying that the downtrend of price is gradually obvious. Changes of price [went] smaller today and trading volume has returned to normal levels.”

What do you think about the crypto market outlook this week? Do you think the market looks bearish or do you think markets are still bullish? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Bitcoin Trading Bots: Machines Taking the Lead

Bitcoin trading bots have been getting attention from crypto traders. Claims of automated trade signals, 24/7 trading opportunities, and virtually 100 percent uptime are enough to turn any serious crypto trader’s head. There are dozens of competitors in the bitcoin trading bots space, each vying for your business.

However, make sure you’re not so bedazzled by their high-tech algorithms that you fail to realistically assess whether or not you’re actually a suitable candidate to trade them.

What is a Bitcoin Trading Bot

Simply stated, these bots are computer programs that generate Bitcoin buy and sell signals. Also known as trading algorithms, these programs connect via API to your trading exchange account. The big idea is to automate your crypto trading to the maximum degree possible, eliminate subjective trading decisions and exploit trading ops that occur when you’re not able to monitor the markets.

Typically, the bot software runs in the following environments:

  • The cloud
  • A web-based application
  • A VPS (Virtual Personal Server)

Bots R Us

As of writing, there are dozens of comprable bitcoin trading bots, and you’ll need to examine the potential advantages and disadvantages of their respective offerings. Here are a few tips to help ferret out the best possible set of bots for you:

  • Make sure the bot runs on the cloud, not on your computer. If you have an internet or electrical outage, computer crash or another mishap that renders your Mac or PC useless, you’ll be very happy to know your bot will keep performing without interruption.
  • Verify that your trading bot provider (TBP) offers an extensive array of technical indicators from which to build your trading strategy.
  • Further, make certain that your TBP also offers a good strategy back testing utility. Never trade a bitcoin (crypto) bot strategy until you’ve extensively back tested and forward tested it.
  • Your TBP should also offer a simulated trading feature. This is a must-have, especially if you are new to the world of trading system development. You can verify the strengths and weakness of your new bot strategy on real-time crypto data but without the risk of losing any money.
bitcoin trading bots Gimmer strategies
Gimmer offers a wide range of crypto trading bots. You’ll need to buy and hold a specific amount of their GMR tokens to be permissioned for each one. Image: Gimmer.net website, January 8, 2019

Scalability, Client Support, and User Groups

Your TBP should also excel in these critical areas, too –

  • Your bitcoin bot firm needs to offer API connectivity to as many reputable crypto exchanges as possible. This is especially true if you’re going to be trading arbitrage strategies that exploit coin mispricing across various exchanges.
  • Ascertain that reliable, useful client support is available. If you bot has a three AM identity crisis and forgets what to do -and when – you (and your trading account equity) could be in big trouble. Being able to ring up a friendly, knowledgeable support agent at such times is invaluable.
  • If your TBP offers a dedicated users group, you can greatly shorten your trading system learning curve. Even better, if they offer a trading bot marketplace, you may be able to buy or lease a winning bot strategy, rather than having to build one yourself.

Other Critical Bot Whatnot

Measure the cost-effectiveness of your trading bot. Make sure that the bot can typically make more in profits than the inevitable costs of commissions, slippage, bot subscription fees, and capital gains taxes will eat up. If you can’t program a consistently winning bot, there’s no reason to use one. 

A Look at One Bitcoin Bot Firm

Gimmer.net is a TBP that offers its own VPS to clients. However, it comes at a price:

“With the VPS you will not have to worry about losing connection to the internet, power outages in your home or if your computer crashes. Simply subscribe to the VPS service and all necessary data is sent to a cloud computer that is unique and private.”

bitcoin trading bots Gimmer upgrade timeline
Gimmer apparently has a number of upgrades planned for 2020 and beyond. The ‘spread’ and ‘triangular arbitrage’ bots are now live. Image: Gimmer.net website, January 8, 2019

Gimmer’s VPS will set you back $25 in purchases of its GMR token per month. Additionally, to use any of Gimmer’s trading bots, you’ll need to buy and hold between 200 and 500 of the same tokens. The bots are programmed to handle many niche trading styles, such as:

  • Non-leveraged trading (garden-variety, directional strategies).
  • Margin trading, with high leverage multiples available.
  • Lending (you can make loans in various cryptos)
  • Scalper (coded to grab quick gains with small losses)
  • Portfolio-based strategies (may lessen drawdowns, assists with diversification)
  • Arbitrage (exploiting inter-exchange price differentials)
  • Triangular arbitrage (similar to arbitrage, but uses three or more coins)
  • Spreads (go long one coin even as you short another (a popular mean-reversion strategy).

Additionally, all Gimmer clients receive a free trading bot:

“A standard automated crypto trading bot is offered for free. This includes the use of one indicator, one safety and one pair, without leverage.”

Like most other TBPs, Gimmer offers API connectivity to many major exchanges, including Binance, Bitfinex, BitMEX, Bittrex, Cobinhood, Hubii, Kraken, KuKoin, Poloniex, and XTRADE.IO.

Is a Bitcoin Trading Bot Right for You?

Maybe. Maybe not. It all depends on your trading style, account equity size, trading experience, and personal goals. If you have a sound trading system development education, you’ll probably be able to easily build or find a trading bot that will suit you. If you know how to deal with software issues quickly or have instant access to those who can help you diagnose and repair bot-related issues, then you may also be a good trading bot candidate.

However, if you naively believe that making money in Bitcoin or any other crypto is a simple, effortless process that simply requires the push of a button, then you may be sorely disappointed. Successful trading is hard work. If any novice trader could buy a retail bitcoin bot, trade it with $100,000 and make $50,000 per annum, year after year, the crypto markets would progressively render such a strategy ineffective.

Say 5,000 Bitcoin traders use the same winning bot this year. It makes 40 or 50 percent gains. As word of its success spreads, next year maybe 50,000 traders will start using it. Over time, professional and institutional traders will be able to trade against the bot with great effectiveness, thus neutralizing it. Too many traders will be chasing its trade signals on one side of the market, and that’s when the pros come in for the retail trader kill.

This is one reason why you never market a trading system that you personally want to continue making money with. Think about that the next time some trading system developer attempts to con you out of $5,000 for a trading system.

Bitcoin Bot Plusses and Minuses

Advantages

  • Your trading bot can act on trade signals faster than you can.
  • Exploit opportunities 24/7.  Some big market moves begin in the evening session and then gain even more traction as the herd piles in the next morning.
  • Lack of system building training isn’t a problem. You can buy or lease potentially effective Bitcoin bots from other developers.
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) will become very prominent in the bitcoin bot world within a few years. It’s conceivable that future bots will be able to auto-optimize your trading signals in real-time. AI may also help you select an ideal mix of bot trading strategies for your portfolio.
  • As more crypto traders trade shorter-term, bot-based strategies, crypto market volatility may actually decrease. This may occur due to a massive increase in coin market caps and liquidity.

Disadvantages

  • Short-term trading has high commission and slippage costs.
  • Lack of crypto market liquidity at certain hours of the day. A big new event in the wee hours might trigger a needless losing trade.
  • Risk of flash crashes. Ironically, these are usually caused by institutional trading bots.
  • Outages on an exchange, technical problems with the bot, communication or computer issues.
  • The cost of the bot subscription itself.
  • The need to continually monitor your bot’s performance and reliability.
  • You must know how to effectively re-optimize your trading bot.
  • If your bot provider isn’t 100 percent cloud-based, you’ll have ongoing VPS costs.

Hard Work, Education, Self-Discipline, and Overrides

System trading education, money management skills, sound trader psychology, and an extensive TA education is a must for profitable automated crypto trading results. You can’t simply build a quickie system with canned indicators, hit the ‘run’ button and expect to generate a living from your bitcoin trading bot. However, you might become a consistently profitable bitcoin bot trader if you work hard at developing the above-mentioned trading disciplines.

A final word of wisdom to consider when running a fully-automated Bitcoin trading bot, make of this what you will:

Never take your eyes off off your trading screen. Ever. Do not place 100 percent confidence in your trading bot, computer software or hardware. Crypto market conditions can change rapidly, potentially creating scenarios that your bot was never designed to deal with. You must continually supervise your bot or risk waking up to an unpleasant, money-losing surprise one morning.

Never underestimate your inherently superior reasoning abilities to that of a machine or algorithm. Be ready, able and willing to step in and override your bot any time it encounters hyper-volatile crypto market conditions.

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