For a few years now, the pseudonymous creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) bitcoin price model, Plan B, has become a very well known bitcoin influencer gathering 1.8 million Twitter followers. However, after the S2F price model didn’t come to fruition and dropped well below the price targets in 2022, Plan B and his price model have been criticized a great deal. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s cofounder, denounced Tuesday’s S2F price model. He said that financial models that give people false certainty can be harmful and should be ridiculed.
Plan A’s Stock-to Flow Bitcoin Price Model is Not as Popular As It Was
A few specific price models have been mocked this week as people have noticed that bitcoin’s price has not followed the “Rainbow” price indicator and Plan B’s famous stock-to-flow price model. The pseudonymous creator of the S2F model caught the attention of the crypto community years ago on March 22, 2019, when he published an editorial called “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity.” When things got bullish in late 2020 and into 2021, Plan B’s statements and price model were revered and at times, the analyst’s predictions were on point.
In January 2021, bitcoin’s (BTC) USD value was seemingly following the S2F model and at the time Plan B said: “bitcoin stock-to-flow model [is] on track… like clockwork.” Toward the end of June 2021, Plan B gave an update on his “worst case scenario for 2021.” The analyst said: “Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crack down. We also see weakness in June and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K.”
Prediction is hard, especially the future. EMH says it is difficult to predict financial markets, especially the future. For who is still interested in models, here are 5 BTC valuation models:
– Time (log regression, rainbow) and S2F too high
– UTXO/TX too low
– Difficulty/Mining_cost currently best pic.twitter.com/9FYCbWmbp7
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 21, 2022
After publishing his “worst-case scenario” predictions, August and September seemed to have reached the targets Plan B predicted. However, while BTC hit an all-time high at $69K per unit on November 10, it did not make it near the $98K range and December was not even close. Fast forward to the end of 2022’s first quarter and BTC‘s price continued to slide lower, and presently, the leading crypto asset’s price compared to the S2F chart is way off the radar. Plan B and his price model have been criticized in the past and by well known BTC advocates. For instance, the owner of Upstream Data, Steve Barbour, once tweeted:
The S2F model is the used car salesman approach to memeing bitcoin to the moon.
Buterin: ‘Stock to-Flow is Really Not Looking Good Now ‘
In recent years, Plan B’s model was mocked more severely. Ethereum advocate Anthony Sassano tweeted about the S2F model and Plan B’s predictions. Sassano stated that the ‘Stock-to-flow’ model was such a failure that Plan B should delete his account. “He won’t though, because he still has 1.8million followers who eat all of his hopium garbage every day.” Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, also tweeted about the matter.
“Stock-to-flow is really not looking good now,” Buterin said retweeting Sassano’s statement. “It’s rude to brag and all that but I believe financial models that give people false certainty and predestination that number will go-up are harmful and deserving of all the ridicule they get. Remember who supported S2F and who mocked it even back when it looked like it was accurately describing the trendline,” the Ethereum co-founder added.
Plan A Responds, Analysts’ Fans Tell Him to Keep Posting — They Enjoy the Perspective You Bring ‘
Plan A responded to Buterin’s statement by retweeting his tweet on Tuesday with some criticism towards “failed projects .”
“After a crash, some people are looking for scapegoats for their failed projects or wrong investment decisions,” Plan B said. “Not only are newbies, but [also] leaders also fall prey to playing the victim and blaming others.” Remember those who blame others and those who stand strong after a crash.” Plan B also retweeted an individual who wrote that “Ethereum’s ‘ultrasound’ tokenomics are entirely based on S2F.” Plan B also explained later in the day that he shares his analysis and charts free of charge.
“So I share my analysis and charts FOR FREE,” Plan B wrote on Tuesday. “Never told anybody to buy or what/when/how/howmuch to buy. Covid, Russia’s war, China ban and inflation tank all assets, including bitcoin… and some weeners blame me for their investment decisions. Lame.”
She’s a 10 but according to PlanB
— cryptograffiti (@cryptograffiti) June 21, 2022
S2F was mocked for being incorrect, and the “Rainbow price indicator” has been ridiculed during the past two weeks. In a similar fashion, the Rainbow chart has not contained BTC‘s price but some people said they could add a few extra lines of purple to make the chart work again. “I’ve created a new and improved model for the rainbow chart,” the Twitter account @Levelsdennis tweeted.
A number of bitcoiners felt the same as Plan B and encouraged him to continue his work. “Indeed. “Indeed. Keep posting pls. I enjoy your perspective.” The popular Twitter account @BTC_archive, which has 1 million followers, told the pseudonymous analyst.
This story contains tags
analyst, Anthony Sassano, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Price, BTC advocates, BTC’s price, Ethereum, Ethereum advocate, Ethereum Co-Founder, Ethereum Vitalik Buterin, Forecasts, hopium garbage, Plan B, Plan B S2F, Predictions, pseudonymous creator, statements, Steve Barbour, stock-to-flow, stock-to-flow (S2F), Twitter, ultrasound’ tokenomics, Vitalik Buterin, worst case scenario
What do you think about the recent criticisms about Plan B’s stock-to-flow bitcoin price model? Please comment below to let us know your thoughts on this topic.
Jamie Redman, the News Lead at Bitcoin.com News, is a Florida-based financial journalist. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. Redman is passionate about Bitcoin, open-source codes, and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written more than 5,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about the disruptive protocols emerging today.
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What is the reason why SAND has risen by more than 10% within 24 hours?
The cryptocurrency market continues its positive start to the week with major coins trading in the green area. The cryptocurrency market has performed well in the last two days. In the last 24 hours, the market has added more than 3% to its value, pushing the total market cap above the $900 billion mark. Bitcoin…
The cryptocurrency market continues its positive start to the week with major coins trading in the green area.
The cryptocurrency market has performed well in the last two days. In the last 24 hours, the market has added more than 3% to its value, pushing the total market cap above the $900 billion mark.
Bitcoin surged past the $21k resistance level after adding 2.5% to its value over the last few hours. Ether is eyeing the $1,200 psychological level thanks to its ongoing rally.
However, SAND, the native token of The Sandbox metaverse, is one of the best performers amongst the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
SAND is up by more than 10% in the last 24 hours and currently trades at $0. 935 per coin. This positive step is primarily due to The Sandbox’s partnership and TIMEPieces (the NFT community initiative of TIME).
In a Medium post on Monday, The Sandbox said it has partnered with TIME to develop ‘TIME Square’, TIME’s first-ever destination in the metaverse.
Key level to watch
The SAND/USD 4-hour chart at the moment is bullish, as SAND has been doing well in recent days.
The MACD line is in the neutral zone. This is a significant improvement over the territory it held last week. The 14-day RSI of 64 shows that SAND could soon enter the oversold region over the coming hours or days.
If the market momentum continues, SAND could surge above the $1 psychological level in the next few hours. SAND could test $1 in the event of a prolonged rally. 08 resistance level before the end of the day.
However, we are still in bear market and the bears may regain control. SAND could fall towards the $0. 83 support level in the next few hours.
Highlights June 21: Celsius rises almost 50%, cryptos remain green
The crypto market is bullish at the moment, with all the top 100 cryptocurrencys in the green as of this writing. Top cryptos Solana stood out, gaining more than 15%, followed by Cardano, Ethereum, and BNB, all gaining more than 7% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin was trading above $21,000 at the time of…
The crypto market is bullish at the moment, with all the top 100 cryptocurrencys in the green as of this writing.
Solana stood out, gaining more than 15%, followed by Cardano, Ethereum, and BNB, all gaining more than 7% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin was trading above $21,000 at the time of writing, up more than 4% over the past 24 hours.
Cryptos outside the top 10 also fared well. Polkadot jumped more than 7%, but the standout is Polygon with 14%.
Aside from the top 20,, the trend was similar with most coins adding 5-9% value. Notable standouts include Chainlink, up 12%, Aave with 14%, and Waves with 18%.
Elrond gained another 15% today. Since announcing a major partnership, Elrond has been rallying with institutions of the Romanian government.
Stacks has 16%, and 1inch Network has 17%.. Recent statistics show that Atomic Swaps on CurveFinance and 1inch registered an average 100 million daily volume.
Zilliqa was one of the largest winners, up 22% during the last 24 h.
XCAD Network allows YouTubers to issue their own fan tokens and NFTs. It allows Youtubers the ability to issue their own fan tokens. Zilliqa’s rally was supported by XCAD’s participation at a recent, very successful live event in NYC.
The big win is Celsius with gains in 49%. Even though Celsius Network is in trouble, the efforts to stabilize it are evidently effective or have an impact on its value.
Compound completes the #100 winners’ list with gains of 26%. The Compound III beta version app is now available to the community.
PetSneakers is today’s biggest winner. It allows you to train your pets and also work out in a virtual environment. It records your workout results and converts them into PSC tokens that you can stake for more profit. PSC is up 363% right now.
US Regulator Charges South African MTI and Its Operator With $1.7 Billion Fraud Involving Bitcoin
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has charged Mirror Trading International (MTI) and its operator with a $1.7 billion fraud involving bitcoin. This action is the regulator’s largest fraud scheme case involving the cryptocurrency.
CFTC Takes Action Against MTI
The CFTC announced Thursday that it has charged a “South African pool operator and CEO with $1.7 billion fraud involving bitcoin.” The regulator added:
This action is CFTC’s largest fraud scheme case involving bitcoin.
The derivatives watchdog has filed a civil enforcement action, charging Cornelius Johannes Steynberg and Mirror Trading International Proprietary Ltd. (MTI) with “fraud and registration violations.”
From approximately May 18, 2018, through March 20 last year, “Steynberg, individually and as the controlling person of MTI, engaged in an international fraudulent multilevel marketing scheme … to solicit bitcoin from members of the public for participation in a commodity pool operated by MTI,” the CFTC detailed, elaborating:
During this period, Steynberg … accepted at least 29,421 bitcoin — with a value of over $1,733,838,372 at the end of the period.
The announcement adds that the CFTC “seeks full restitution to defrauded investors, disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, civil monetary penalties, permanent registration and trading bans, and a permanent injunction against future violations of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC Regulations.”
The derivatives watchdog described:
The defendants misappropriated, either directly or indirectly, all of the bitcoin they accepted from the pool participants.
The CFTC concluded: “Sternberg is a fugitive from South African law enforcement, but was recently detained in the Federative Republic of Brazil on an Interpol arrest warrant.”
What do you think about the CFTC’s action against MTI and its operator? Let us know in the comments section below.
A student of Austrian Economics, Kevin found Bitcoin in 2011 and has been an evangelist ever since. His interests lie in Bitcoin security, open-source systems, network effects and the intersection between economics and cryptography.
Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.
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