Connect with us

Ethereum

The Merge Will Rally Ethereum Like a Bitcoin Halving: Arthur Hayes

In his latest blog post, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes broke down how he expects Ethereum traders to react before and after the merge.

Based on the technicals of the upgrade, he suspects that Ethereum will rally after a successful transition in September, similarly to how Bitcoin rallies during its periodic halving cycles. 

The Theory of Reflexivity

In an article titled “ETH-flexive,” Hayes centers his bullish thesis around George Soros’s “theory of reflexivity.” The theory posits that there is a feedback loop between market prices, and the expectations held by market participants for a given market situation.

In the context of the merge, Hayes believes this phenomenon can rally Ethereum’s price due to the reflexive relationship between its price, and its deflationary properties. 

“If the merge is successful… traders will buy ETH today, knowing that the higher the price goes, the more the network will be used and the more deflationary it will become, driving the price higher, causing the network to be used more, and so on and so forth,” he explained.  “This is a virtuous circle for bulls.”

The merge will usher in two major changes for Ethereum: it will shift its consensus mechanism from proof of work to proof of stake, and also reduce ETH’s supply issuance rate by roughly 90%. This has led some to nickname the event the “triple halving.”

Combined with EIP-1559 – which burns ETH out of circulation with every transaction – ETH is expected by many to become a net-deflationary currency following the upgrade. Therefore, Hayes suspects that a feedback loop can form between ETH’s price appreciation, usage, and deflationary issuance.  

Alternatively, the co-founder noted that this feedback loop could work against ETH, driving its price down in the event of an unsuccessful merge. However, a look at ETH’s spot market activity, which has greatly outperformed Bitcoin in recent weeks, suggests that market participants expect a successful merge event. 

Not Selling the News

Ethereum derivatives data from Glassnode last week suggested that traders may be planning to “sell the news” once the merge actually takes place in mid-September

Specifically, the term structure for Ethereum futures is trading in backwardation leading all the way until June 2023. That means futures traders expect ETH’s price will drop by the maturity date of their contracts.

However, Hayes offered two alternative theories for why ETH may be experiencing buy pressure in the spot market, and sell pressure in the futures market.

On one hand, traders could be hedging their long physical ETH bets in the futures markets in the case of an unsuccessful merge. On the other, they could be hedging against their ETH position for general reasons, while accumulating spot ETH simply to pick up free chain-split tokens following a speculative POW fork.

Hayes expects that these traders will “buy back their hedge” following a successful merge and that any people attempting to sell their spot ETH will be in the minority. If there is indeed a selloff at that time, Hayes only plans to increase, rather than decrease, his position. 

“I expect we will see it play out similar to Bitcoin halvings,” he wrote. “We all know the dates they will occur, and yet, Bitcoin still always rallies post-halving.”

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)

Binance Free $100 (Exclusive): Use this link to register and receive $100 free and 10% off fees on Binance Futures first month (terms).

PrimeXBT Special Offer: Use this link to register & enter POTATO50 code to receive up to $7,000 on your deposits.

Read More

Ethereum

Railgun Denies North Korea Ties as it Approaches $1B Total Volume

Crypto privacy protocol Railgun has denied accusations that it is being used by North Korea and other United States-sanctioned entities to launder digital assets.

This development comes as the crypto privacy protocol nears $1B total volume.

Railgun Denies Lazarus Group Association

Responding to claims made by crypto reporter Colin Wu through an X post, Railgun denied allegations linking it to the North Korean hacker group Lazarus Group.

“The North Korean hacker group Lazarus Group is also a user of the coin mixer Railgun,” the post stated. “Railgun is seen as the main alternative to Tornado Cash after the sanctions were imposed on it,” the team added.

Wu’s post referenced an FBI statement from January 2023 that accused Railgun of being used to launder over $60 million worth of Ethereum stolen during the 2022 Harmony Bridge heist.

RAILGUN protocol: “Any suggestion that sanctioned individuals, governments, or entities such as North Korea have used RAILGUN have no evidence & are based only on speculation.” From 2023, all RAILGUN transactions go through a Private Proofs of Innocence check which verifies that…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) April 16, 2024

“This is not true, and it’s false reporting,” Railgun stated. The team affirmed that the Lazarus group can’t access the Railgun system due to its ‘Private Proofs of Innocence’ system, which became operational over a year ago. Railgun also dismissed the accusation as a mistaken and false claim.

This development comes amidst a surge in Railgun’s total volume, which is about to break the $1 billion mark. Data from Dune Analytics reveals that Railgun has reached $962.81 million in total volume, with its total value locked on Ethereum surpassing $25 million.

Buterin’s Endorsement of Railgun

The protocol’s rise in popularity has been further propelled by an endorsement from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who recently defended it while praising its privacy features.

“Privacy is normal,” Buterin affirmed. “Railgun uses the privacy pools protocol, which makes it much harder for bad actors to join the pool without compromising users’ privacy.”

Meanwhile, Buterin has transferred 100 ETH (approximately $325,000) to Railgun within the last two days, according to data from Arkham Intelligence. Over the past six months, he has engaged with Railgun several times, regularly interacting with the platform using small amounts of ETH each month.

Railgun, established in January 2021, leverages zero-knowledge cryptography to shield wallet balances, transaction history, and transaction details. This allows customers to use decentralized apps (DApps) while safeguarding their privacy.

The introduction of Private Proofs of Innocence in January 2023 has increased Railgun’s security measures as it now uses cryptographic assurance to verify the legitimacy of funds entering its smart contract.

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)

LIMITED OFFER 2024 for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link to register and open a $500 BTC-USDT position on Bybit Exchange for free!

Read More

Continue Reading

Ethereum

EY Launches Ethereum-Based OpsChain Contract Manager for Business Contracts

Ernst & Young (EY) has launched OpsChain Contract Manager (OCM), an Ethereum solution that leverages zero-knowledge proofs technology.

The solution will help private businesses efficiently manage and execute intricate business agreements while ensuring confidentiality, timeliness, and cost-effectiveness.

EY Launches the OpsChain Contract Manager

EY, one of the top “big four” accounting firms alongside Deloitte, KPMG, and PwC, has been exploring the business applications of zero-knowledge proofs (zk proofs) since at least 2018.

OpsChain Contract Manager (OCM) is tailored to facilitate the secure management of business contracts on a public blockchain. By leveraging zero-knowledge proofs, OCM ensures contract integrity and confidentiality while enhancing efficiency and reducing costs.

The platform integrates with existing enterprise systems through a standardized API and supports various contract types, including volume purchase agreements and pricing models linked to market data feeds.

The development of OCM came from EY’s previous client engagements, where it realized that contract term accuracy could be enhanced while significantly reducing cycle times and administrative costs by approximately 90% and 40%, respectively.

Meanwhile, EY chose Ethereum, a public blockchain, over a private network to prevent any party from gaining undue advantage while mitigating the risk of sensitive business information leakage.

Paul Brody, EY Global Blockchain Leader, highlighted that the technology behind OCM, Nightfall, initially emerged on Ethereum and underwent testing on its test network. The upcoming update will transition Nightfall to Ethereum’s mainnet and may incorporate a Layer-3 upgrade to enhance scalability and functionality.

EY’s Venture Into Blockchain

EY’s launch of OpsChain Contract Manager comes amid increasing blockchain adoption by major financial players. BlackRock also recently entered the space with a tokenized fund on Ethereum.

EY’s OCM reflects its commitment to revolutionizing how enterprises handle contracts, focusing on enhancing process efficiency and transparency through blockchain solutions. By integrating blockchain into traditional business practices, EY sets a precedent for the industry’s progression toward embracing this transformative technology in routine operations.

This latest development builds upon EY’s ongoing engagement with the blockchain sector. EY recently made headlines with a “healthcare breakthrough” by leveraging blockchain technology in collaboration with Canadian Blood Services.

In October 2023, EY unveiled the fourth generation of its EY blockchain analytics tool, Reconciler, designed to aid Fidelity in enhancing internal risk management for digital assets.

In September 2021, EY also announced its collaboration with Polygon to integrate Polygon’s solutions with EY’s flagship blockchain services, including EY OpsChain and EY Blockchain Analyzer.

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)

LIMITED OFFER 2024 for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link to register and open a $500 BTC-USDT position on Bybit Exchange for free!

Read More

Continue Reading

Ethereum

Ethereum Poised to Retest $3.5K as Bullish Sign Reappear (ETH Price Analysis)

After experiencing a rapid downturn, Ethereum has found itself supported by a substantial zone, comprising the 100-day moving average and a critical price range between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels. Consequently, a bullish rebound is anticipated in the medium term.

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

A thorough examination of the daily chart reveals an extended period of corrective retracements, culminating in the price finding support within a pivotal zone.

This zone encompasses the 100-day moving average at $3050 and the significant price range between the 0.5 ($3190) and 0.618 ($2972) Fibonacci levels.

This range carries significance as it attracts considerable demand, potentially hindering further downward pressure from market sellers. Additionally, a minor bullish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator suggests the potential for a bullish resurgence, targeting a reclaim of the $3.5K threshold. However, despite the bullish indications, an unexpected breach below this critical support zone could trigger a cascade effect toward the 200-day moving average at $2.5K.

eth_price_chart_2004241
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

A closer inspection of the 4-hour chart reveals the formation of a descending wedge pattern during a multi-month consolidation correction. Following a significant decline, the price has reached the lower boundary of the wedge and the support region around $3K.

Nonetheless, given the potential buying pressure within this crucial range, the price has entered a consolidation phase characterized by minimal volatility.

This price action highlights a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Nevertheless, a noticeable divergence between the price and the RSI indicator on the 4-hour timeframe suggests the strength of buyers, increasing the likelihood of a bullish upswing in the medium term. In such a scenario, the next target for the price would be the critical resistance level at $3.5K. Conversely, should a break below this support occur, a descent toward the $2.7K support becomes increasingly probable.

eth_price_chart_2004241
Source: TradingView

By Shayan

As Ethereum’s price exhibits signs of recovery, it’s crucial to determine whether this resurgence stems from spot buying or leveraged futures activity. A key metric for this analysis is the funding rates, where positive values signify bullish sentiment and negative values indicate fear in the market.

Observing the recent downtrend in Ethereum’s price, it’s notable that the funding rate metric has mirrored this trajectory, steadily declining until reaching near-zero levels. This alignment suggests that the recent price drop has led to the liquidation of a significant number of positions in the perpetual market, resulting in a cooling effect on the futures market. Consequently, the market appears primed for the re-emergence of long positions, with the potential for a fresh upward surge.

eth_funding_rates_chart_2004241
Source: CryptoQuant
SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)

LIMITED OFFER 2024 for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link to register and open a $500 BTC-USDT position on Bybit Exchange for free!

Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.