Ethereum

After Bitcoin, Will the SEC Greenlight Spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF This Year? (Poll)

The US Securities and Exchange Commission finally greenlighted a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this week, although in a slightly reluctant fashion.

Now, speculations are starting to arise on when the agency will do the same in terms of an exchange-traded fund tracking the performance of the second-largest cryptocurrency.

When ETH ETF?

2023 will go down in history as the year with the most news and developments in terms of ETFs as numerous companies filed for such products for BTC and ETH. Perhaps the trend intensified after BlackRock did so in the middle of the year, and many others followed.

With already nearly a dozen BTC ETFs trading on US stock markets, the focus has now shifted to other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum. Currently, several companies have filed to launch such products, including Grayscale, which is trying to convert its ETH Trust into a spot ETF, as it did with its flagship Trust – GBTC.

The SEC, though, keeps delaying the decision, with most applications now having to wait until May. History shows that the Commission tends to delay or reject crypto ETFs for years before it finally allows them to reach the markets, but will this be the case now as well?

The analytics platform Santiment took it to X to check with the community about their opinion on the matter. It turns out that the majority, over 52% in fact, believe the US will have a spot Ethereum ETF by the end of this year. Roughly 10% are even more optimistic, saying it will be greenlighted this month, while 11.3% don’t see it happening ever.

🤔 With several #Bitcoin #ETF‘s being approved by the #SEC Wednesday, there are growing hopes that #Ethereum and other assets will have their own ETF’s approved next. When do you believe another asset, $ETH or otherwise, have their own ETF be officially accepted for public use?

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) January 12, 2024

Price Effects?

We saw that BTC skyrocketed in the months ahead of the SEC approvals and even on the first day of trading. However, the trend reversed violently in the following day or so, and the asset slumped by almost $8,000 in 36 hours when the ETFs were already live for trading.

This has given those in camp “sell-the-news” advantage so far. ETH, on the other hand, has just now started to increase in value, which could be a speculative run as many expect an ETF to arrive soon.

As such, it would be interesting to follow how ETH’s price will perform in the months prior and after such a product is approved, if ever.

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Ethereum

Ethereum Derivatives Traders Position for $4K Rebound, Data Shows

Ethereum ( ETH) derivatives traders are back in full swing, with open interest, volume, and options activity all flashing signs of renewed energy across futures and options markets. ETH Max Pain Sits Near $3,300 as Traders Eye Key Expiry Levels At 10 a.m. Eastern time on Nov…
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Ethereum

ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract Now Controls 60% Of All Ethereum: Arkham

Rain Lohmus bought $75,000 worth of ETH in 2014, which is now worth $871 million. Yet, he cannot move even a single coin.

New on-chain research from Arkham Intelligence this week shows that the wallet address holding the most ETH today is not an individual, not an exchange, not an ETF issuer, but the staking contract that secures Ethereum.

According to Arkham, the ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract currently holds more than 72.4 million ETH, worth around $252 billion at current market prices, and represents approximately 60% of the total supply.

Ethereum’s Power Center

In terms of individuals, the research firm confirmed that the largest known individual holder of ETH is still Rain Lohmus, the founder of Estonian bank LHV, who bought 250,000 ETH in the 2014 presale for around $75,000. Those coins would now be worth roughly $871 million, but Lohmus does not have access to them because he lost the private keys years ago.

The second largest identifiable individual holder is Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who currently holds around 240,000 ETH, worth around $840 million.

Beyond individual wallets, centralized exchanges and institutional entities collectively control some of the largest pools of Ether. Binance, for one, holds approximately 4.09 million ETH, while asset manager BlackRock holds around 3.94 million ETH, largely associated with its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF. Coinbase is the next largest institutional holder, with approximately 3.5 million ETH across multiple addresses, including cold wallets and staking reserves for its cbETH staking token.

Following suit are Upbit, Robinhood, Kraken, OKX, and Bitfinex, which appear among the top institutional holders.

Seized Funds, Stolen Funds, and Layer-2 Bridges

Arkham found that governments also appear on the leaderboard. For instance, the United States government controls around 60,000 ETH, which largely consists of seized criminal funds, including from the Potapenko/Turogin case and from seizures related to the Bitfinex hacker.

Ethereum

Ethereum Traders Just Flipped Bullish, But History Says This Is a Major Red Flag

Ethereum’s bounce toward $3,500 triggered instant FOMO, but Santiment says extreme optimism usually means price is about to disappoint.

Ethereum traders have swung sharply from extreme bearishness to extreme bullishness within just a few days, based on social media sentiment.

But fresh data suggest that when ETH nearly rebounded to $3,500 on Thursday, the crowd interpreted the move as a confirmation that the asset was “back in business.”

ETH Trader FOMO

Santiment warned that this sudden pivot is similar to the same pattern seen earlier in the week, when retail panic selling actually contributed to the rebound. Now, the rapid return of FOMO could similarly stall further upside.

According to the analytics platform, prices have shown a tendency to move in the opposite direction of the crowd, and that more neutral sentiment phases have proven to be stronger buy signal environments than euphoric ones.

Crypto trader Ted Pillows also noted that even though the altcoin is showing some rebound after this week’s sharp decline, the recovery lacks conviction. According to Pillows, the current move higher, though modest, is being driven largely by short positions being closed rather than new spot buyers stepping in. He added that Ethereum needs to reclaim the $3,600-$3,700 price range with meaningful inflows to establish strength and dismiss the risk of further downside. Without that confirmation, Pillows believes the odds still favor lower prices from here.

Despite the near-term uncertainty, some traders say the bigger picture is still pointing toward a substantial upside scenario. For instance, crypto trader “Trader Tradigrade” said that ETH’s monthly chart is currently developing what he describes as a massive Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with a potential price target of $14,000 once confirmed.

“Wet Blanket” Phase

As the crypto market remains sluggish, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz believes that this could be due to long-term holders rebalancing their net worths and diversifying away from massive concentrated holdings after a very long bull market. Novogratz deems this to be a healthy sign in the medium and long term as these positions get distributed. In the short run, however, he said that “it’s a proverbial wet blanket” and has weighed on prices.

About the author

Chayanika has been working as a financial journalist for six years. A graduate in Political Science and Journalism, her interest lies in regulatory implications with a focus on technological evolution in the crypto realm.