Ethereum

ETF Anticipation Ends in ‘Sell-the-News’ Slump for BTC, ETH Sees a Notable Boost: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s value dipped below $39,000 this week, erasing almost all gains made in the last two months, which were fueled by expectations of approval for a spot BTC ETF in the United States. But the introduction of the much-anticipated funds ended up being a classic “sell-the-news” event.

The term is a well-established concept in capital markets, illustrating how asset prices, leverage, and market sentiment work in tandem to drive prices upward, leading up to a positive event, only to see a subsequent decline.

Bitcoin ETF Approval Fizzles into ‘Sell-the-News’

From mid-October, the digital asset markets displayed robust performance, driven by ETF speculation and narratives surrounding capital rotation. Since BlackRock initially filed for its ETF, Bitcoin’s market cap has risen by more than 65%, with the overall altcoin market cap experiencing a similar increase of over 69%.

However, Ethereum has shown less bullish momentum, trailing the broader altcoin space by a decline of 17% over the same time frame, according to the latest estimates of on-chain intelligence platform Glassnode.

Looking at a broader perspective, Bitcoin was found to have steadily gained dominance over the past few years, growing from 38.9% to 49.8% since the FTX Collapse in November 2022.

In contrast, Ethereum has maintained its market cap dominance within the range of 18.9% to 18.2%. The decline in market share is notable among altcoins, dropping from 28.3% to 24.2%, while stablecoins also saw a reduction from 13.9% to 7.8%.

Ethereum’s Unexpected Rebound

Following the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs, several entities have either submitted applications or indicated a willingness to support the introduction of spot Ethereum ETFs. Securing approval for such a fund might present more challenges, as the SEC could view the leading altcoin more as an investment contract. The market sentiment, however, seems positive.

The prices of Ethereum have surged by over 20% compared to BTC in recent weeks, marking the most significant performance on a quarterly, monthly, and weekly basis since late 2022. This corresponds with a modest rebound in both the asset’s market cap dominance as well as the overall dominance of altcoins. Ethereum has gained 2.9% in market cap dominance compared to Bitcoin.

Simultaneously, there has been a notable increase in the volume of net profits secured by Ethereum investors, reaching a new multi-year high. While profit-taking has been on the rise since mid-October, the peak on January 13 surpassed $900 million per day, indicating investors capitalizing on the momentum created by the ‘sell-the-news’ scenario.

Glassnode observed a growing sense of optimism in the ETH market but also highlighted a potential point where markets typically pause to digest the distribution pressure from profit-taking. Historically, such shifts in sentiment among short-term holders have coincided with local peaks during a broader upward trend.

“ETH investors have recorded a multi-year high in net realized profits, suggesting there is some willingness to sell-the-speculation on a potential ETH ETF capital rotation.”

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Ethereum

Ethereum Derivatives Traders Position for $4K Rebound, Data Shows

Ethereum ( ETH) derivatives traders are back in full swing, with open interest, volume, and options activity all flashing signs of renewed energy across futures and options markets. ETH Max Pain Sits Near $3,300 as Traders Eye Key Expiry Levels At 10 a.m. Eastern time on Nov…
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Ethereum

ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract Now Controls 60% Of All Ethereum: Arkham

Rain Lohmus bought $75,000 worth of ETH in 2014, which is now worth $871 million. Yet, he cannot move even a single coin.

New on-chain research from Arkham Intelligence this week shows that the wallet address holding the most ETH today is not an individual, not an exchange, not an ETF issuer, but the staking contract that secures Ethereum.

According to Arkham, the ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract currently holds more than 72.4 million ETH, worth around $252 billion at current market prices, and represents approximately 60% of the total supply.

Ethereum’s Power Center

In terms of individuals, the research firm confirmed that the largest known individual holder of ETH is still Rain Lohmus, the founder of Estonian bank LHV, who bought 250,000 ETH in the 2014 presale for around $75,000. Those coins would now be worth roughly $871 million, but Lohmus does not have access to them because he lost the private keys years ago.

The second largest identifiable individual holder is Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who currently holds around 240,000 ETH, worth around $840 million.

Beyond individual wallets, centralized exchanges and institutional entities collectively control some of the largest pools of Ether. Binance, for one, holds approximately 4.09 million ETH, while asset manager BlackRock holds around 3.94 million ETH, largely associated with its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF. Coinbase is the next largest institutional holder, with approximately 3.5 million ETH across multiple addresses, including cold wallets and staking reserves for its cbETH staking token.

Following suit are Upbit, Robinhood, Kraken, OKX, and Bitfinex, which appear among the top institutional holders.

Seized Funds, Stolen Funds, and Layer-2 Bridges

Arkham found that governments also appear on the leaderboard. For instance, the United States government controls around 60,000 ETH, which largely consists of seized criminal funds, including from the Potapenko/Turogin case and from seizures related to the Bitfinex hacker.

Ethereum

Ethereum Traders Just Flipped Bullish, But History Says This Is a Major Red Flag

Ethereum’s bounce toward $3,500 triggered instant FOMO, but Santiment says extreme optimism usually means price is about to disappoint.

Ethereum traders have swung sharply from extreme bearishness to extreme bullishness within just a few days, based on social media sentiment.

But fresh data suggest that when ETH nearly rebounded to $3,500 on Thursday, the crowd interpreted the move as a confirmation that the asset was “back in business.”

ETH Trader FOMO

Santiment warned that this sudden pivot is similar to the same pattern seen earlier in the week, when retail panic selling actually contributed to the rebound. Now, the rapid return of FOMO could similarly stall further upside.

According to the analytics platform, prices have shown a tendency to move in the opposite direction of the crowd, and that more neutral sentiment phases have proven to be stronger buy signal environments than euphoric ones.

Crypto trader Ted Pillows also noted that even though the altcoin is showing some rebound after this week’s sharp decline, the recovery lacks conviction. According to Pillows, the current move higher, though modest, is being driven largely by short positions being closed rather than new spot buyers stepping in. He added that Ethereum needs to reclaim the $3,600-$3,700 price range with meaningful inflows to establish strength and dismiss the risk of further downside. Without that confirmation, Pillows believes the odds still favor lower prices from here.

Despite the near-term uncertainty, some traders say the bigger picture is still pointing toward a substantial upside scenario. For instance, crypto trader “Trader Tradigrade” said that ETH’s monthly chart is currently developing what he describes as a massive Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with a potential price target of $14,000 once confirmed.

“Wet Blanket” Phase

As the crypto market remains sluggish, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz believes that this could be due to long-term holders rebalancing their net worths and diversifying away from massive concentrated holdings after a very long bull market. Novogratz deems this to be a healthy sign in the medium and long term as these positions get distributed. In the short run, however, he said that “it’s a proverbial wet blanket” and has weighed on prices.

About the author

Chayanika has been working as a financial journalist for six years. A graduate in Political Science and Journalism, her interest lies in regulatory implications with a focus on technological evolution in the crypto realm.