Ethereum is approaching a decisive resistance at the 200-day moving average of $2.7K, signalling a potential bullish shift in market sentiment. A successful breakout above this level could ignite a strong rally, with the price likely targeting the $3.5K threshold in the mid-term.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

ETH is on the verge of a decisive breakout above the critical 200-day moving average at $2.7K, a key level that has historically served as both support and resistance. After a brief consolidation beneath this threshold, the market has regained strength, with renewed buying pressure pushing the price toward a potential breakout.

A confirmed break above the $2.7K resistance would mark a significant shift in market sentiment, signaling the beginning of a broader bullish reversal. In this scenario, Ethereum is likely to target the $3K mark in the near term, with a possible extension toward the $3.5K resistance in the mid-term.

However, if the breakout attempt is rejected, selling pressure may take control, leading to a deeper retracement toward the $2K support region, aligned with the 100-day moving average. This level would then serve as a critical zone for the bulls to regroup.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, ETH recently consolidated within a bullish continuation wedge pattern. After testing and holding support at the wedge’s lower boundary near $2.3K, the asset went on an impulsive rally, breaking out of the structure.

This breakout reflects a continuation of the bullish trend. Nevertheless, Ethereum now faces a key short-term resistance around the $2.7K swing high. A brief rejection and pullback toward the breakout level could occur, which would serve to validate the breakout before a potential continuation rally toward the $3K and possibly $3.5K levels.

Onchain Analysis

The Binance liquidation heatmap continues to offer key insights into Ethereum’s evolving market dynamics and potential price trajectory. Following a strong upward movement, ETH recently reached the critical $2.7K level, where a dense cluster of liquidation levels was triggered, flushing out leveraged short positions and offloading significant market liquidity.

Historically, in phases of recovery or strong bullish sentiment, markets tend to hunt these liquidity pockets, as smart money and institutional participants trigger forced liquidations to fuel upward momentum.

Currently, Ethereum has reclaimed the $2.5K resistance and is holding above $2.7K, signaling renewed bullish strength. Notably, the heatmap reveals a noticeable void of substantial liquidation levels between the current price and the $3.5K range. This lack of sell-side liquidity indicates reduced resistance ahead, supporting the potential for a continued rally toward the $3.5K threshold in the mid-term.

Ethereum is showing signs of short-term exhaustion after a strong impulsive rally. Although the buyers have managed to break through major resistance levels, the price is currently stalling around a key structure and could be at risk of a local top if momentum fades.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

ETH has decisively broken above the 100-day moving average, located around the $2,100 area, and is also trying to reclaim the 200-day moving average near the $2,600 mark. Moreover, the RSI is hovering in the overbought territory, signalling that the rally might be overextended in the short term.

Currently, the asset is consolidating just below the lower boundary of the previously broken long-term ascending channel. A daily close above this level would invalidate the idea of a pullback and open the door toward the $3,000 zone, which coincides with a prior supply area. On the downside, the $2,150 zone now acts as solid support and could serve as a potential re-entry point for buyers if the market pulls back.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour timeframe shows ETH consolidating within a narrow range around the $2,600 level. The price is maintaining its gains following the breakout from a descending channel and a series of bullish imbalances filled along the way.

The RSI has also cooled off, showing a decline in bullish momentum but no immediate signs of bearish divergence. If ETH can break and hold above the $2,600 zone, it may gather enough strength to run toward the key $3,000 resistance level soon.

Onchain Analysis

Exchange netflows remain negative on aggregate, with a recent reading showing a net outflow of over 170K ETH. This indicates a broader trend of accumulation and long-term holding, as coins continue to leave centralized exchanges and move into self-custody. Persistent outflows during a price rally typically support the case for bullish continuation as they reflect a lack of intent to sell.

However, it’s worth noting that this behavior also raises caution, as extreme bullish positioning can lead to sharp corrections if the sentiment becomes too one-sided. Traders should monitor changes in netflows closely, especially if inflows begin to spike around major resistance levels, as that could mark local tops and signal profit-taking.