TLDR

• Bitcoin has experienced several recent rebounds but continues an overall downward trend
• On-chain data shows short-term profit surges failing to reverse broader downtrend pattern
• BTC is currently trading around $83,600, down almost 2% over the past week
• Analyst Crypto Dan suggests the possibility of one final upward movement in this market cycle
• Despite losses, short-term holders continue to maintain their positions, possibly anticipating a bullish reversal

Bitcoin has experienced multiple price rebounds in recent days, adding to a series of short-term recoveries that have punctuated its general downward movement over the past few months.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that each of Bitcoin’s recent price lows has coincided with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio dipping below 1, indicating that loss-taking has been more prevalent than profit-taking.

These periods of loss realization tend to mark seller exhaustion, when downside momentum fades as sell-side pressure is absorbed by the market. This pattern has helped Bitcoin find temporary support levels.

Each instance of increased loss realization has been followed by a price rebound for the cryptocurrency.

However, these recoveries have not developed into sustained upward momentum. The question remains whether these bounces represent the start of a bullish trend or merely temporary relief in a continuing downward movement.

Long-Term Indicators Remain Bearish

Looking at longer timeframes, Glassnode notes that the 90-day simple moving average of the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has been declining sharply, despite short-term increases in profit realization.

The brief surges in profit-taking have not been sufficient to reverse the broader downtrend. This suggests that the overall market picture continues to be characterized by weaker liquidity and deteriorating investor profitability.

From the perspective of this key indicator, Bitcoin’s recent price rebounds do not yet signal a shift toward bullish momentum in the larger market context.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,600, showing a decline of almost 2% over the past seven days.

Potential for One Final Push Upward

Despite current bearish signals, some analysts see the potential for one more upward price movement before this market cycle concludes.

In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, contributor Crypto Dan analyzed the ratio of Bitcoin volume traded over six to twelve-month periods. This metric reflects new capital entering the crypto market and has historically shown strong correlation with market cycles.

According to Crypto Dan, this ratio typically declines twice during a market cycle. The first decline marks the end of the early bull phase, while the second, lower decline signals the end of the entire bull cycle.

Bitcoin hit a critical midpoint in March 2024 when this volume ratio experienced its first notable decline, consistent with patterns observed in previous market cycles.

The ratio now appears to be entering its second and final dip, which could potentially lead Bitcoin toward this cycle’s ultimate peak before a more significant correction.

This pattern suggests that despite the recent pullback of more than 23% from January’s all-time high of $108,786, Bitcoin may still have room for one final surge upward.

Multiple indicators point to Bitcoin holders viewing the current market correction as temporary rather than the start of a prolonged bear market.

Recent analysis revealed that short-term Bitcoin holders are continuing to hold their coins despite being in a loss position. This behavior suggests they anticipate an upcoming bullish reversal.

Additionally, exchange net flow data indicates reduced selling pressure, potentially setting the stage for a price recovery.

Bitcoin’s resilience has been noted by various market observers, including Max Keiser, who currently serves as a cryptocurrency advisor to the Bukele Administration.

Trump has triggered the ‘Global Reset’

The era of globalization was a deflationary period where US workers traded jobs for very cheap consumer goods manufactured in Asia.

The quality of life was not too noticeably impacted.

The people who fell off the grid were ignored or…

— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) April 3, 2025

Keiser has commented on Bitcoin’s strength in the face of new tariff-based trade policies enacted by President Trump. He suggested that even with potential economic changes, Bitcoin remains positioned as a hedge against inflation.

According to Keiser, even if higher income and quality jobs materialize from policy changes,

“the overall inflation rate will jump even higher so the quality of life will not materially improve.”