Ethereum

Ethereum’s Worst Case Price Scenario for a Bear Market: ETH Analysis Reveals Key Targets

Ethereum (ETH) is one of the top assets that suffered a massive decline on Monday, currently trading at $4,177. A certain cohort of traders appears to have capitalized on this.

In fact, data suggest that ETH whales aggressively bought the dip, which has pushed its realized price upwards.

Ethereum’s $2.9K Fortress

According to the latest findings by CryptoQuant, Ethereum accumulation addresses now show an average realized price of around $2.9K, marking a crucial support zone.

Fueled by the ETH ETF rally, this level has climbed sharply from $1.7K to $2.9K, which demonstrates significant buying activity.

The total balance in these addresses has reached 27.6 million ETH. Analysts suggest that, in a worst-case scenario, the $2.9K level could act as a firm support, which could potentially cushion the leading crypto asset against deeper market declines. Although, this level remains close to 30% away from current prices, which in itself would be a considerable pullback.

Meanwhile, experts believe that the recent shakeout could act as a catalyst to spur market momentum. At a time when whales are establishing a support zone, institutional treasuries have amplified the buying pressure.

Treasuries Draining ETH Supply

It is owing to this increased demand from Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) and a favorable regulatory boost from US stablecoin legislation that ETH surged back above $4,000 in September and has managed to retain this level despite this week’s setback.

CoinMetrics reported that DAT accumulation is now outpacing new ETH issuance since The Merge in September 2022.

This buying neutralizes inflationary dilution, even as validators receive fewer rewards from staking, with yields dropping near 3% as more ETH is locked in the network. DATs, unlike typical validators who redistribute rewards, are largely hoarding ETH, and creating a supply vacuum that could make the asset scarcer and potentially more valuable.

At the same time, Ethereum continues to dominate stablecoin activity, as evidenced by nearly 65% of total stablecoin supply settled on its network, a trend accelerated by the approval of the GENIUS Act. Daily stablecoin transfer volumes have surpassed $60 billion, which has directed more transaction fees to validators and bolstered network security.

Despite this, challenges remain. For instance, new “stable-chains” and faster competitors are threatening Ethereum’s settlement advantage, while its relatively long block times risk constraining future growth if not addressed. Layer 2 networks offer a partial solution, by alleviating congestion and enabling faster, cheaper transactions, but developer focus on scaling will be critical.

Whether Ethereum can maintain its momentum depends on balancing deflationary pressures, validator incentives, and competition from emerging chains.

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Ethereum

Ethereum Derivatives Traders Position for $4K Rebound, Data Shows

Ethereum ( ETH) derivatives traders are back in full swing, with open interest, volume, and options activity all flashing signs of renewed energy across futures and options markets. ETH Max Pain Sits Near $3,300 as Traders Eye Key Expiry Levels At 10 a.m. Eastern time on Nov…
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Ethereum

ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract Now Controls 60% Of All Ethereum: Arkham

Rain Lohmus bought $75,000 worth of ETH in 2014, which is now worth $871 million. Yet, he cannot move even a single coin.

New on-chain research from Arkham Intelligence this week shows that the wallet address holding the most ETH today is not an individual, not an exchange, not an ETF issuer, but the staking contract that secures Ethereum.

According to Arkham, the ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract currently holds more than 72.4 million ETH, worth around $252 billion at current market prices, and represents approximately 60% of the total supply.

Ethereum’s Power Center

In terms of individuals, the research firm confirmed that the largest known individual holder of ETH is still Rain Lohmus, the founder of Estonian bank LHV, who bought 250,000 ETH in the 2014 presale for around $75,000. Those coins would now be worth roughly $871 million, but Lohmus does not have access to them because he lost the private keys years ago.

The second largest identifiable individual holder is Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who currently holds around 240,000 ETH, worth around $840 million.

Beyond individual wallets, centralized exchanges and institutional entities collectively control some of the largest pools of Ether. Binance, for one, holds approximately 4.09 million ETH, while asset manager BlackRock holds around 3.94 million ETH, largely associated with its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF. Coinbase is the next largest institutional holder, with approximately 3.5 million ETH across multiple addresses, including cold wallets and staking reserves for its cbETH staking token.

Following suit are Upbit, Robinhood, Kraken, OKX, and Bitfinex, which appear among the top institutional holders.

Seized Funds, Stolen Funds, and Layer-2 Bridges

Arkham found that governments also appear on the leaderboard. For instance, the United States government controls around 60,000 ETH, which largely consists of seized criminal funds, including from the Potapenko/Turogin case and from seizures related to the Bitfinex hacker.

Ethereum

Ethereum Traders Just Flipped Bullish, But History Says This Is a Major Red Flag

Ethereum’s bounce toward $3,500 triggered instant FOMO, but Santiment says extreme optimism usually means price is about to disappoint.

Ethereum traders have swung sharply from extreme bearishness to extreme bullishness within just a few days, based on social media sentiment.

But fresh data suggest that when ETH nearly rebounded to $3,500 on Thursday, the crowd interpreted the move as a confirmation that the asset was “back in business.”

ETH Trader FOMO

Santiment warned that this sudden pivot is similar to the same pattern seen earlier in the week, when retail panic selling actually contributed to the rebound. Now, the rapid return of FOMO could similarly stall further upside.

According to the analytics platform, prices have shown a tendency to move in the opposite direction of the crowd, and that more neutral sentiment phases have proven to be stronger buy signal environments than euphoric ones.

Crypto trader Ted Pillows also noted that even though the altcoin is showing some rebound after this week’s sharp decline, the recovery lacks conviction. According to Pillows, the current move higher, though modest, is being driven largely by short positions being closed rather than new spot buyers stepping in. He added that Ethereum needs to reclaim the $3,600-$3,700 price range with meaningful inflows to establish strength and dismiss the risk of further downside. Without that confirmation, Pillows believes the odds still favor lower prices from here.

Despite the near-term uncertainty, some traders say the bigger picture is still pointing toward a substantial upside scenario. For instance, crypto trader “Trader Tradigrade” said that ETH’s monthly chart is currently developing what he describes as a massive Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with a potential price target of $14,000 once confirmed.

“Wet Blanket” Phase

As the crypto market remains sluggish, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz believes that this could be due to long-term holders rebalancing their net worths and diversifying away from massive concentrated holdings after a very long bull market. Novogratz deems this to be a healthy sign in the medium and long term as these positions get distributed. In the short run, however, he said that “it’s a proverbial wet blanket” and has weighed on prices.

About the author

Chayanika has been working as a financial journalist for six years. A graduate in Political Science and Journalism, her interest lies in regulatory implications with a focus on technological evolution in the crypto realm.