Ethereum

3 Reasons Ethereum’s (ETH) Bull Run Isn’t Over Yet

TL;DR

Despite bleeding out lately, Ethereum continues to show bullish signals.
Some analysts see recovery hinging on ETH reclaiming $4,200, while others lean bearish, eyeing a slide to $3,500 unless support holds.

Are the Bulls Coming Back?

Ethereum, which was at the forefront of gains this summer, briefly plunged below $4,000 earlier today (September 25) amid an ongoing red wave passing through the entire crypto market. It later surpassed the psychological level but remains 12% down on a weekly scale.

Despite the negative performance, three crucial factors signal that a resurgence could be on the way. The first one is the diminishing supply of ETH tokens stored on crypto exchanges. CryptoQuant’s data shows that today the figure has dropped to a nine-year low of around 16.3 million coins.

This development indicates that many investors have switched from centralized platforms to self-custody solutions, which in turn reduces immediate selling pressure.

Next in line is Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). The technical analysis tool examines the asset’s recent price movements to indicate whether it has entered oversold or overbought territory. It ranges from 0 to 100, and readings below 30 suggest that the first scenario could be in play, which can result in a rally. As of press time, the RSI stands at roughly 22.

Last but not least, we will touch upon the latest whale activity that may also positively impact ETH’s valuation. X user ZYN revealed that ten new wallets have purchased over 200,000 tokens worth more than $800 million in the last 24 hours.

Such actions reduce the amount of coins available on the open market and could be followed by a price pump (should demand remain constant or rise). Additionally, smaller players may view this as an encouraging sign and join the ecosystem by distributing fresh capital.

The Analysts’ Take

According to X user Lennaert Snyder, Ethereum’s road to recovery goes through a crucial reclaim of $4,200.

“Watching that level for confirmation shorts and longs after the gain. Losing $3,900 support brings us to the $3,700 zone, holding that is key to maintain the weekly uptrend,” he argued.

The analyst, using the X moniker Ted, leaned more bearish for the short term. He predicted that ETH will most likely retest $3,800, which could result in a further downtrend to $3,500. On the other hand, if it holds this level, “a rally will happen.”

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Ethereum

Ethereum Derivatives Traders Position for $4K Rebound, Data Shows

Ethereum ( ETH) derivatives traders are back in full swing, with open interest, volume, and options activity all flashing signs of renewed energy across futures and options markets. ETH Max Pain Sits Near $3,300 as Traders Eye Key Expiry Levels At 10 a.m. Eastern time on Nov…
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Ethereum

ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract Now Controls 60% Of All Ethereum: Arkham

Rain Lohmus bought $75,000 worth of ETH in 2014, which is now worth $871 million. Yet, he cannot move even a single coin.

New on-chain research from Arkham Intelligence this week shows that the wallet address holding the most ETH today is not an individual, not an exchange, not an ETF issuer, but the staking contract that secures Ethereum.

According to Arkham, the ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract currently holds more than 72.4 million ETH, worth around $252 billion at current market prices, and represents approximately 60% of the total supply.

Ethereum’s Power Center

In terms of individuals, the research firm confirmed that the largest known individual holder of ETH is still Rain Lohmus, the founder of Estonian bank LHV, who bought 250,000 ETH in the 2014 presale for around $75,000. Those coins would now be worth roughly $871 million, but Lohmus does not have access to them because he lost the private keys years ago.

The second largest identifiable individual holder is Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who currently holds around 240,000 ETH, worth around $840 million.

Beyond individual wallets, centralized exchanges and institutional entities collectively control some of the largest pools of Ether. Binance, for one, holds approximately 4.09 million ETH, while asset manager BlackRock holds around 3.94 million ETH, largely associated with its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF. Coinbase is the next largest institutional holder, with approximately 3.5 million ETH across multiple addresses, including cold wallets and staking reserves for its cbETH staking token.

Following suit are Upbit, Robinhood, Kraken, OKX, and Bitfinex, which appear among the top institutional holders.

Seized Funds, Stolen Funds, and Layer-2 Bridges

Arkham found that governments also appear on the leaderboard. For instance, the United States government controls around 60,000 ETH, which largely consists of seized criminal funds, including from the Potapenko/Turogin case and from seizures related to the Bitfinex hacker.

Ethereum

Ethereum Traders Just Flipped Bullish, But History Says This Is a Major Red Flag

Ethereum’s bounce toward $3,500 triggered instant FOMO, but Santiment says extreme optimism usually means price is about to disappoint.

Ethereum traders have swung sharply from extreme bearishness to extreme bullishness within just a few days, based on social media sentiment.

But fresh data suggest that when ETH nearly rebounded to $3,500 on Thursday, the crowd interpreted the move as a confirmation that the asset was “back in business.”

ETH Trader FOMO

Santiment warned that this sudden pivot is similar to the same pattern seen earlier in the week, when retail panic selling actually contributed to the rebound. Now, the rapid return of FOMO could similarly stall further upside.

According to the analytics platform, prices have shown a tendency to move in the opposite direction of the crowd, and that more neutral sentiment phases have proven to be stronger buy signal environments than euphoric ones.

Crypto trader Ted Pillows also noted that even though the altcoin is showing some rebound after this week’s sharp decline, the recovery lacks conviction. According to Pillows, the current move higher, though modest, is being driven largely by short positions being closed rather than new spot buyers stepping in. He added that Ethereum needs to reclaim the $3,600-$3,700 price range with meaningful inflows to establish strength and dismiss the risk of further downside. Without that confirmation, Pillows believes the odds still favor lower prices from here.

Despite the near-term uncertainty, some traders say the bigger picture is still pointing toward a substantial upside scenario. For instance, crypto trader “Trader Tradigrade” said that ETH’s monthly chart is currently developing what he describes as a massive Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with a potential price target of $14,000 once confirmed.

“Wet Blanket” Phase

As the crypto market remains sluggish, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz believes that this could be due to long-term holders rebalancing their net worths and diversifying away from massive concentrated holdings after a very long bull market. Novogratz deems this to be a healthy sign in the medium and long term as these positions get distributed. In the short run, however, he said that “it’s a proverbial wet blanket” and has weighed on prices.

About the author

Chayanika has been working as a financial journalist for six years. A graduate in Political Science and Journalism, her interest lies in regulatory implications with a focus on technological evolution in the crypto realm.