Ethereum

Is Ethereum Doomed to Plunge to $3,500 After Latest $4K Rejection?

ETH is down by over 10% in the past week alone.

TL;DR

Ethereum’s inability to decisively reclaim the crucial $4,000 resistance could result in a more painful price drop to and even below $3,500, said Ali Martinez.
In contrast, other analysts remain optimistic about its future trajectory, outlining that Q4 and Q1 are just around the corner, periods that have been historically very bullish for ETH and other alts.

Another $4K Rejection?

Recall that the second-largest cryptocurrency stood tall above $4,700 just a couple of weeks ago. Although it started to slip in the following days, it still maintained the $4,500 level by last Monday when all hell broke loose. In the span of just an hour or so, ETH slumped by over $400 and dumped beneath $4,100.

Following an unsuccessful recovery attempt that was quickly halted at $4,200, Ethereum dumped once again. This time, it was even more violent as the asset plummeted to a multi-month low of $3,830 (on Bitstamp).

The bulls finally reminded of their presence at this point and didn’t allow a further breakdown. However, they seem to be lacking a lot of strength, as ETH has been unable to decisively overcome the critical resistance at $4,000.

If the asset indeed fails to break past this level in the following few days, the danger of a price drop to $3,500 becomes even more likely, according to Martinez.

Ethereum $ETH rejected at $4,000, raising the odds of a move to $3,500. https://t.co/xWK25UhOm2 pic.twitter.com/Jfb02IPZEn

— Ali (@ali_charts) September 27, 2025

The analyst also outlined the following support lines if $3,500 falls, which are set at $3,020 and $2,772. Crypto Rover warned that whales have been selling substantial portions of their ETH holdings, which could result in another price slip.

Uptober to Save ETH?

While the analysts above painted a grim picture for ETH’s future, Michael van de Poppe stood in the opposite corner. He relied on historical performance to demonstrate that Ethereum tends to rocket at the end of each year and the beginning of the next.

The markets always have a correction in September / October.

Historically, Q4 and Q1 are a great period for #Altcoins.

September is a terrible month, and that’s what we’ve seen with $ETH, it’s down nearly 10%.

Q4 is almost always positive, Q1 is the best quarter in the… pic.twitter.com/T48dzJ5ITU

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 27, 2025

The data shared by him shows that ETH tends to perform well in most previous Octobers, including a 42.8% surge in 2021 and an 18.5% pump in 2022.

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About the author

Jordan got into crypto in 2016 by trading and investing. He began writing about blockchain technology in 2017 and now serves as CryptoPotato’s Assistant Editor-in-Chief. He has managed numerous crypto-related projects and is passionate about all things blockchain.

Ethereum

Ethereum Derivatives Traders Position for $4K Rebound, Data Shows

Ethereum ( ETH) derivatives traders are back in full swing, with open interest, volume, and options activity all flashing signs of renewed energy across futures and options markets. ETH Max Pain Sits Near $3,300 as Traders Eye Key Expiry Levels At 10 a.m. Eastern time on Nov…
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Ethereum

ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract Now Controls 60% Of All Ethereum: Arkham

Rain Lohmus bought $75,000 worth of ETH in 2014, which is now worth $871 million. Yet, he cannot move even a single coin.

New on-chain research from Arkham Intelligence this week shows that the wallet address holding the most ETH today is not an individual, not an exchange, not an ETF issuer, but the staking contract that secures Ethereum.

According to Arkham, the ETH2 Beacon Deposit Contract currently holds more than 72.4 million ETH, worth around $252 billion at current market prices, and represents approximately 60% of the total supply.

Ethereum’s Power Center

In terms of individuals, the research firm confirmed that the largest known individual holder of ETH is still Rain Lohmus, the founder of Estonian bank LHV, who bought 250,000 ETH in the 2014 presale for around $75,000. Those coins would now be worth roughly $871 million, but Lohmus does not have access to them because he lost the private keys years ago.

The second largest identifiable individual holder is Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who currently holds around 240,000 ETH, worth around $840 million.

Beyond individual wallets, centralized exchanges and institutional entities collectively control some of the largest pools of Ether. Binance, for one, holds approximately 4.09 million ETH, while asset manager BlackRock holds around 3.94 million ETH, largely associated with its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF. Coinbase is the next largest institutional holder, with approximately 3.5 million ETH across multiple addresses, including cold wallets and staking reserves for its cbETH staking token.

Following suit are Upbit, Robinhood, Kraken, OKX, and Bitfinex, which appear among the top institutional holders.

Seized Funds, Stolen Funds, and Layer-2 Bridges

Arkham found that governments also appear on the leaderboard. For instance, the United States government controls around 60,000 ETH, which largely consists of seized criminal funds, including from the Potapenko/Turogin case and from seizures related to the Bitfinex hacker.

Ethereum

Ethereum Traders Just Flipped Bullish, But History Says This Is a Major Red Flag

Ethereum’s bounce toward $3,500 triggered instant FOMO, but Santiment says extreme optimism usually means price is about to disappoint.

Ethereum traders have swung sharply from extreme bearishness to extreme bullishness within just a few days, based on social media sentiment.

But fresh data suggest that when ETH nearly rebounded to $3,500 on Thursday, the crowd interpreted the move as a confirmation that the asset was “back in business.”

ETH Trader FOMO

Santiment warned that this sudden pivot is similar to the same pattern seen earlier in the week, when retail panic selling actually contributed to the rebound. Now, the rapid return of FOMO could similarly stall further upside.

According to the analytics platform, prices have shown a tendency to move in the opposite direction of the crowd, and that more neutral sentiment phases have proven to be stronger buy signal environments than euphoric ones.

Crypto trader Ted Pillows also noted that even though the altcoin is showing some rebound after this week’s sharp decline, the recovery lacks conviction. According to Pillows, the current move higher, though modest, is being driven largely by short positions being closed rather than new spot buyers stepping in. He added that Ethereum needs to reclaim the $3,600-$3,700 price range with meaningful inflows to establish strength and dismiss the risk of further downside. Without that confirmation, Pillows believes the odds still favor lower prices from here.

Despite the near-term uncertainty, some traders say the bigger picture is still pointing toward a substantial upside scenario. For instance, crypto trader “Trader Tradigrade” said that ETH’s monthly chart is currently developing what he describes as a massive Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with a potential price target of $14,000 once confirmed.

“Wet Blanket” Phase

As the crypto market remains sluggish, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz believes that this could be due to long-term holders rebalancing their net worths and diversifying away from massive concentrated holdings after a very long bull market. Novogratz deems this to be a healthy sign in the medium and long term as these positions get distributed. In the short run, however, he said that “it’s a proverbial wet blanket” and has weighed on prices.

About the author

Chayanika has been working as a financial journalist for six years. A graduate in Political Science and Journalism, her interest lies in regulatory implications with a focus on technological evolution in the crypto realm.