Raoul Pal is the CEO and founder of Real Vision. He believes that the crypto market has “found it’s bottom” and that a new upward momentum is possible.
The Real Vision CEO made his comments during an interview with Layah Heilpurn, with his outlook coming at a time Bitcoin and the rest of crypto is looking to bounce after a bout of fresh declines over the past few days.
Bitcoin, which traded to lows near $39,000 this week, has recovered some of the losses to currently hover near $41,200. BTC-USD has risen 4% in the last 24 hours while crypto market capitalisation rose 3%.
Ethereum, Cardano (ADA), BNB(BNB), XRP (XRP), and Solana have all increased more than 3% over the past 24hours. Avalanche, Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) are the top crypto gainers of the day.
Crypto did not make a new low
According to Pal, the cryptocurrency market has been affected by several macro developments in recent months. Despite several negative triggers, there has not been a new bottom since the 2021 last bottom.
This scenario suggests crypto resilience, and could point to a low being in, though no one can predict the market.
“The balance of probabilities is that we made the low last year, we retested the low this year and I think the low is in,” he noted.
He believes that crypto has seen everything that could have helped drive prices to a new low. This has not happened yet. Heilpurn was told by he:
“ I think we’ve thrown an army, 8.5% inflation and the Fed raising interest rates all at crypto. We’ve also thrown the Chinese ban and [yet it] didn’t make a new bottom. Usually, that’s usually a signal the market has found its bottom.”
A slowing economy could lead to new upward action
A slowdown in economic growth is Pal’s top choice for triggering crypto price drops. This is a scenario that will trigger buying pressure in assets that “tend to outperform in low growth environments.”
He says that a change in the economic landscape could see “people fear inflation less and start fearing growth more.”According to Pal, this is when long-duration assets (and crypto is one such asset that loves a slowing economy) begin to outperform.
In the stock market, Cathie Wood’s ARKK can be a great example.
Pal also discussed Bitcoin’s four year cycle narrative. He noted that these are likely to be overdue given the market’s current size compared with the early years. He said that the cycle could still have an impact but it could be smaller as more adoption reduces wild volatility.