Ethereum has slipped below the $3,300 mark, indicating persistent selling pressure in this zone. While bears aren’t showing strong momentum just yet, the fact that the price declined following a major liquidation event, one that already cleared out many over-leveraged longs, raises the risk of further downside. This hints that spot sellers could now be in control, opening the door for a deeper short-term correction.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, ETH dropped below the channel and has fallen slightly beneath the 200-day moving average. It is currently breaking below the $3,300 demand zone too. This is a key level Ethereum is now losing, as the 200-day moving average is known as one of the most critical indicators for determining whether the overall market phase is bullish or bearish.
The RSI also remains weak at 32, showing the market is not bound for recovery yet. For buyers to regain control, ETH needs to break back above $3,500 and flip that region and the 200-day moving average into support. Until then, the price is sitting in a vulnerable zone, which could push the price lower toward the $3,000 support level in the coming days.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows a quick rejection from the lower boundary of the broken channel and the previous support zone, around $3,400. The price is currently hovering around the level and has yet to form a convincing rebound or create a higher low.
The RSI is also stabilizing below the 50% level, as the momentum is clearly bearish. With ETH breaking the $3,300 to the downside once more, the next sweep toward the $3,000 zone and lower could come fast.
Sentiment Analysis
Long Liquidations
Sentiment-wise, liquidations wiped out a large portion of late long entries, creating a cleaner slate for the price to stabilize. The chart shows a major liquidation spike right before the small bounce, confirming the shakeout.
With many positions flushed and the RSI nearing oversold regions across multiple timeframes, the market might soon be due for a reset. Yet, traders are likely to stay cautious, waiting for clearer strength and a break back above $3,500 before reloading on longs.
On the other hand, a drop toward the $3,000 level could ignite another liquidation cascade and lead to an even more significant liquidation event, which could result in another flash crash in the upcoming weeks.
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Ethereum Traders Just Flipped Bullish, But History Says This Is a Major Red Flag
Ethereum’s bounce toward $3,500 triggered instant FOMO, but Santiment says extreme optimism usually means price is about to disappoint.
Ethereum traders have swung sharply from extreme bearishness to extreme bullishness within just a few days, based on social media sentiment.
But fresh data suggest that when ETH nearly rebounded to $3,500 on Thursday, the crowd interpreted the move as a confirmation that the asset was “back in business.”
ETH Trader FOMO
Santiment warned that this sudden pivot is similar to the same pattern seen earlier in the week, when retail panic selling actually contributed to the rebound. Now, the rapid return of FOMO could similarly stall further upside.
According to the analytics platform, prices have shown a tendency to move in the opposite direction of the crowd, and that more neutral sentiment phases have proven to be stronger buy signal environments than euphoric ones.
Crypto trader Ted Pillows also noted that even though the altcoin is showing some rebound after this week’s sharp decline, the recovery lacks conviction. According to Pillows, the current move higher, though modest, is being driven largely by short positions being closed rather than new spot buyers stepping in. He added that Ethereum needs to reclaim the $3,600-$3,700 price range with meaningful inflows to establish strength and dismiss the risk of further downside. Without that confirmation, Pillows believes the odds still favor lower prices from here.
Despite the near-term uncertainty, some traders say the bigger picture is still pointing toward a substantial upside scenario. For instance, crypto trader “Trader Tradigrade” said that ETH’s monthly chart is currently developing what he describes as a massive Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with a potential price target of $14,000 once confirmed.
“Wet Blanket” Phase
As the crypto market remains sluggish, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz believes that this could be due to long-term holders rebalancing their net worths and diversifying away from massive concentrated holdings after a very long bull market. Novogratz deems this to be a healthy sign in the medium and long term as these positions get distributed. In the short run, however, he said that “it’s a proverbial wet blanket” and has weighed on prices.
“I do not think we have seen cycle highs. I think by year-end, we (will) see a new Fed chair, and he will be far more dovish than markets are used to. Hopefully, that gives enough narrative to propel the next leg higher.”
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About the author
Chayanika has been working as a financial journalist for six years. A graduate in Political Science and Journalism, her interest lies in regulatory implications with a focus on technological evolution in the crypto realm.
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200K ETH in 2 Days: Brewing Ethereum Rally or Just an Internal Shuffle?
Check out why the ETH bulls may have a cause for celebration soon.
Ethereum (ETH) slipped once again below the $3,800 mark, but several factors suggest a substantial price rebound could be incoming. One such element is the reduced number of tokens stored on cryptocurrency exchanges.
On the other hand, some analysts warn that the asset might be poised for an even more severe pullback in the short term.
Shifting to Self-Custody?
The renowned analyst on X, Ali Martinez, revealed that 200,000 ETH have been withdrawn from crypto exchanges in the past 48 hours alone. The USD equivalent of the stash is around $770 million (calculated at current rates).
The development signals that investors have been abandoning centralized platforms and moving their holdings into self-custody wallets, thereby reducing immediate selling pressure.
Earlier this week, the total amount of ETH stored on crypto exchanges dropped to a nine-year low of around 15.8 million coins, while today’s figure is quite close to that level.
ETH Exchange Reserves, Source: CryptoQuant
It is important to note that Martinez made another clarification on the matter. Just recently, he stated that 230,000 ETH tokens were moved by large holders (possibly exchanges) in the last week. The move may include withdrawals, deposits, internal transfers, or other operations that differ from the other development.
Separately, Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands clearly on the bullish side (at least as of now). The technical analysis tool, which measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes, is just north of 30, which puts it close to the oversold zone and poised for a potential surge. Conversely, ratios above 70 suggest the asset is overbought and are considered bearish for the price.
As of press time, Ethereum trades at approximately $3,800, down 5% on a daily scale and 8% over the past month. The X user Ted mentioned the drop under $4,000 following the Fed’s decision to lower the interest rates in the US and the US-China trade talks, opining that this is “a classic bear trap or the crypto market is going way lower.” Kamran Asghar chipped in, too, envisioning a possible dip to $3,400-$3,500 before a renewed rally.
Others, like Max Crypto, were much more optimistic, predicting an “up-only” scenario in which ETH would explode to a new all-time high of $7,000. According to the analyst, the asset’s recent performance resembles the pre-pump condition from May this year, which was followed by a substantial surge shortly after.
Meanwhile, whales with a 100% winning rate have recently opened long positions in ETH, sparking speculation that they might know something we don’t.
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