Ethereum drops to $3,130 as it tests the weekly 50 EMA. Analysts track key support, a tight daily range, and rising large-wallet withdrawals.

Ethereum is trading near a key technical level, raising questions about the strength of its current trend. As of press time, the price stands at $3,130, down 11% in the last 24 hours and 4% over the past week.

Analysts are monitoring this zone to assess whether the asset can hold support or continue its decline.

Weekly 50 EMA Retest in Focus

ETH is now testing the weekly 50 EMA, a level that acted as resistance for more than a year. This zone, around the $3,200–$3,500 area, is now being retested from the other side. Merlijn The Trader described the setup as “make or break,” noting:

“Lose this… and momentum dies. Hold it… and we send.”

Holding this support keeps Ethereum within a broader trend structure. If the level gives way, sellers may take control again, and the price could shift lower toward the next support zones.

Ethereum’s strength against Bitcoin is also being monitored after reclaiming the 50-week EMA on the ETH/BTC pair. In earlier cycles, including 2021, this development came just before ETH began a major upward move.

Moreover, Ethereum is also moving in a narrow range between $3,350 and $3,675 on the daily chart. It is currently stuck between the 200-day EMA near $3,590 and the 200-day MA at around $3,355. This range has been respected over multiple sessions, with no clear breakout in either direction.

Daan Crypto Trades said that a break outside this range “should lead to another 5%+ move,” but added that only a clean break — not a short-lived wick — would confirm direction. Until a clear move occurs, ETH remains boxed in between these two long-term moving averages.

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Double Bottom Structure Near Key Support

GalaxyBTC pointed out that Ethereum may be forming a double bottom near the $3,100–$3,200 area. This setup comes after a ~36% correction and mirrors a structure seen in 2020. At that time, ETH bounced from a similar double bottom and began a strong rally.

“A bounce here means that the 2020 pattern is still in play,” GalaxyBTC wrote.

A failure to hold here may cancel that pattern and shift expectations to the downside. Price has recently moved from ATH to just above $3,100, matching the scale of that earlier pullback.

Weak Daily Close and Exchange Withdrawals

CryptoWZRD noted that Ethereum closed the day in a bearish position and warned that further weakness is possible. ETHBTC is nearing a support level. They added, “A strong bullish reversal is necessary,” or ETH could stay under pressure. A drop to $2,800 remains on the table if the price fails to recover.

Short-term support is near $3,230, while resistance is seen around $3,640. Without stronger moves in Bitcoin, Ethereum may stay within this range or trade lower.

Meanwhile, data shows large ETH wallets are pulling funds off Binance. This has reduced the available exchange supply. Analysts suggest this may be a sign of long-term positioning, as fewer coins remain ready to sell.

“Let’s put in a higher low and higher high if we’re truly ready to run this back,” X user Posty said.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a notable revival over the past several hours, and Ethereum (ETH) is among the top performers.

Despite its resurgence, though, one popular analyst believes the asset may not be entirely out of the woods yet.

Cause for Concern

The past week has been quite turbulent for ETH, whose price crashed below $3,100 on November 5. In the following days, the bulls made some attempts to reclaim the lost ground, and the major uptick occurred on November 9 when US President Donald Trump promised to distribute at least $2,000 to every American outside the high-income bracket.

ETH rose to as high as $3,650 before slightly retracing to the current $3,610 (per CoinGecko’s data), representing a nearly 20% increase from the local bottom witnessed earlier this month.

Despite the pump, however, some analysts warned that the second-largest cryptocurrency remains in a dangerous zone. X user Posty supports that thesis, arguing that the “structure is still in a multi-month downtrend.”

He thinks multiple key levels in and around $4,000 might prevent a more substantial comeback. “Let’s put in a higher low and higher high if we’re truly ready to run this back,” the analyst added.

Ted also outlined a rather cautious prediction. In his view, crossing a daily candle above $3,700 could lead to a rally to $4,000, but a rejection may be followed by a drop to the $3,400 support area.

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The Road to a New ATH?

Many others have no concerns and think ETH’s valuation could soon skyrocket to new historic peaks. X user Cas Abbe suggested that the asset’s plunge towards $3,000 last week appears to be “a fakeout,” comparing it to the dip that occurred in Q2 this year, which was followed by a 100% rally.

For his part, Ali Martinez envisioned the rise to a fresh all-time high of $10,000. However, he assumed that the price could first collapse to $2,000 before exploding to that level.

The low amount of ETH tokens stored on crypto exchanges supports the long-term bullish scenario. Currently, there are fewer than 16 million coins held on such platforms, which is quite close to the nine-year low witnessed earlier this month. The development suggests that investors have been shifting towards self-custody methods, thus reducing the immediate selling pressure and signaling that there are no signs of mass profit-taking.

With record volumes and historic open interest, Ethereum appears to be in an extremely fragile state.

Speculation is emerging as the dominant driver in the Ethereum market rather than spot accumulation, as ETH trading volume and open interest set new all-time highs.

According to CryptoQuant, ETH trading volumes on centralized exchanges, particularly Binance, have never been this high, and compared to previous cycles, the difference is obvious.

Speculation Dominates the Market

On Binance alone, ETH trading volumes have already crossed $6 trillion in 2025, a figure that is roughly two to three times higher than what was observed in prior market cycles. Other major centralized exchanges have followed a similar path, although Binance remains by far the largest venue for ETH derivatives and high-frequency trading.

Open interest data further supports the same trend. In August this year, ETH open interest on Binance surpassed $12.5 billion in a new record, which represented a dramatic jump when compared to the previous historic peak. Back in November 2021, when the market was euphoric and Ethereum was approaching its then all-time highs, ETH open interest topped out at only $2.5 billion. The fivefold increase in open interest is in line with the view that speculative positioning has expanded to a scale not previously seen in earlier periods.

CryptoQuant added,

“Altogether, this shows that the market is highly speculative on ETH this cycle, making its dynamics more fragile than when the spot market represented a larger share of activity. It also explains why the market behaves differently now and seems noticeably less stable.”

Key Resistances and Support

Against this backdrop, market commentator Ted Pillows observed that Ethereum is approaching a “key” resistance level, and the next major move will likely be determined by price action around $3,700. In his post, Pillows stated that if ETH manages to close a daily candle above this mark, the momentum could trigger a continuation rally toward the $4,000 region. However, if it fails to break above that threshold and is rejected from current levels, a pullback may be imminent.

On the flip side, crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified three critical support levels for the altcoin while taking the Pricing Bands as a reference. The first major support sits at $2,866, which currently acts as the closest buffer zone for bulls.

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The next important level is at $2,528, a deeper support area that could become relevant if selling pressure accelerates or if market volatility spikes. Finally, long-term support sits all the way down at $1,789, a region that has previously served as a strong demand zone.