Ethereum

The Merge Will Rally Ethereum Like a Bitcoin Halving: Arthur Hayes

In his latest blog post, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes broke down how he expects Ethereum traders to react before and after the merge.

Based on the technicals of the upgrade, he suspects that Ethereum will rally after a successful transition in September, similarly to how Bitcoin rallies during its periodic halving cycles.

The Theory of Reflexivity

In an article titled “ETH-flexive,” Hayes centers his bullish thesis around George Soros’s “theory of reflexivity.” The theory posits that there is a feedback loop between market prices, and the expectations held by market participants for a given market situation.

In the context of the merge, Hayes believes this phenomenon can rally Ethereum’s price due to the reflexive relationship between its price, and its deflationary properties.

“If the merge is successful… traders will buy ETH today, knowing that the higher the price goes, the more the network will be used and the more deflationary it will become, driving the price higher, causing the network to be used more, and so on and so forth,” he explained. “This is a virtuous circle for bulls.”

The merge will usher in two major changes for Ethereum: it will shift its consensus mechanism from proof of work to proof of stake, and also reduce ETH’s supply issuance rate by roughly 90%. This has led some to nickname the event the “triple halving.”

Combined with EIP-1559 – which burns ETH out of circulation with every transaction – ETH is expected by many to become a net-deflationary currency following the upgrade. Therefore, Hayes suspects that a feedback loop can form between ETH’s price appreciation, usage, and deflationary issuance.

Alternatively, the co-founder noted that this feedback loop could work against ETH, driving its price down in the event of an unsuccessful merge. However, a look at ETH’s spot market activity, which has greatly outperformed Bitcoin in recent weeks, suggests that market participants expect a successful merge event.

Not Selling the News

Ethereum derivatives data from Glassnode last week suggested that traders may be planning to “sell the news” once the merge actually takes place in mid-September.

Specifically, the term structure for Ethereum futures is trading in backwardation leading all the way until June 2023. That means futures traders expect ETH’s price will drop by the maturity date of their contracts.

However, Hayes offered two alternative theories for why ETH may be experiencing buy pressure in the spot market, and sell pressure in the futures market.

On one hand, traders could be hedging their long physical ETH bets in the futures markets in the case of an unsuccessful merge. On the other, they could be hedging against their ETH position for general reasons, while accumulating spot ETH simply to pick up free chain-split tokens following a speculative POW fork.

Hayes expects that these traders will “buy back their hedge” following a successful merge and that any people attempting to sell their spot ETH will be in the minority. If there is indeed a selloff at that time, Hayes only plans to increase, rather than decrease, his position.

“I expect we will see it play out similar to Bitcoin halvings,” he wrote. “We all know the dates they will occur, and yet, Bitcoin still always rallies post-halving.”

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Ethereum

Ethereum Institutional Buying Collapses 81% as DAT Inflows Hit 2025 Low

Institutional Ethereum demand collapses as Digital Asset Treasuries’ purchases drop 81% since August, with inflows dropping to 370K ETH.

Institutional appetite for Ethereum (ETH) has hit a wall, with recent data from Bitwise showing that purchases of the cryptocurrency by publicly traded Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) fell to 370,000 ETH in November, representing an 81% drop from the August peak of 1.9 million ETH.

The falloff matters because DATs have been one of Ethereum’s strongest sources of demand this year, often absorbing more tokens each month than the network issues.

DAT Buying Weakens

The figures from Bitwise, shared by analyst Max Shannon, show a steady decline in monthly ETH accumulation by DATs from July through November 2025.

The data highlighted a stark progression: after scooping up 1.9 million ETH in August, treasury buying fell to 1.06 million in September, 670,000 in October, and finally just 370,000 in November.

Analysts point to a challenging market environment as the primary cause. According to Shannon, the “treasury model, once seen as a successor to the ‘altcoin season,’ is rapidly losing momentum.”

He noted that declining market values for these companies, a metric known as mNAV, are weakening their buying power. This has created a difficult cycle where falling crypto prices have led to the value of DAT holdings dropping, making it harder for them to raise new capital to buy more assets, which further pressures prices.

This pressure is evident globally as seen in the recent shelving of a planned $500 million Ethereum DAT venture led by major Chinese crypto figures, including Huobi founder Leon Li Lin. Li cited poor market conditions and an unclear macro outlook as reasons for the pause.

Bitmine Adds to its ETH Stockpile

Still, not every buyer is retreating. According to Lookonchain, Tom Lee’s Bitmine just bought another 18,345 ETH worth about $55 million, adding to the company’s already massive 3.7 million ETH position. CoinGecko’s treasury dashboard shows that publicly listed firms now hold over 5.7 million ETH combined, with Bitmine alone accounting for more than half.

DATs were previously seen as a structural force absorbing supply and providing consistent long-term demand.

Between July and November, they accumulated more than 4 million ETH even as monthly issuance hovered near zero.

While the recent slowdown doesn’t negate that impact, it does hint at a turning point where appetite is no longer keeping pace with the aggressive accumulation seen during mid-2025.

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Ethereum

Fusaka Upgrade Lands Tomorrow — Ethereum Set to Gain Strong L2 Data Flow and Sharper Gas Controls

Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade activates tomorrow on Dec. 3, 2025, delivering a sweeping package of scaling, security, and UX improvements aimed at pushing the network into its next era. Unpacking the Fusaka Upgrade Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade will activate on Dec. 3, 2025, at 21: 49: 11 UTC, marking the start of epoch 411,392 (slot 13,164,544) and bringing a [……
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Ethereum

Ethereum’s November Trading Frenzy: Spot Volume Hits $375B as ETFs Add $35B Punch

ETH trading volumes surged from mid-year acceleration to a $599 billion peak.

The trading activity of Ethereum (ETH) has remained high throughout 2025. Interestingly, CryptoQuant data now reveals that spot trading volume across exchanges reached $375 billion in November.

Meanwhile, exchange-traded fund (ETF) volume climbed to nearly $35 billion.

Institutional Money Pours In

According to the analysis, Ethereum began the year with significant volatility in monthly trading activity, with total volume fluctuating between roughly $280 billion and $380 billion before accelerating sharply in the middle of the year.

That surge eventually led to a peak of more than $599 billion in August, and marked the highest monthly trading volume recorded during the period. Following this spike, trading activity eased but stayed comparatively strong, and ended November at around $375 billion, a level that indicates continued market participation despite ongoing price pressures.

CryptoQuant found that Binance remained the dominant venue for Ethereum trading, and recorded approximately $198 billion in spot trading volume during November alone. This figure underscores Binance’s central role in real-time liquidity flows and its position as the leading platform for both institutional and retail traders executing high-volume transactions.

Data also shows that institutional interest played a meaningful role through regulated investment vehicles, with Ethereum spot ETFs registering about $35 billion in trading volume for the month. Such a level of ETF activity points to continued engagement from traditional market participants and adds an additional layer of “organized liquidity” to overall Ethereum market flows during the period.

Currently, Ethereum is seeing renewed confidence from large investors as whale activity increasingly leans toward long positions, according to Alphractal’s Whale vs Retail Delta metric. On the price front, ETH has climbed above $3,000. Despite remaining around 24% lower over the month, the asset’s recovery coincided with aggressive accumulation from major holders.

ETH Near Neutral Zone

Further analysis reveals that Ethereum is trading near fair-value territory, as important on-chain indicators point to a sensitive phase in the market. Ethereum’s Realized Price stands at $2,315 and an MVRV ratio of 1.27. This places the asset in a neutral zone where the market price sits just 27% above the Realized Price, which shows neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

Binance-specific data reflects an even sharper shift, as Ethereum’s MVRV ratio on the exchange hovers near 0.999, just below the historically important threshold of 1.0. A reading under 1 means that market capitalization is aligning with the Realized Price, pushing most investors into a “no-profit, no-loss” position. This zone has historically coincided with early market bottoms or extended periods of price weakness.

On the other hand, long-term MVRV readings above 3 typically correspond with overbought phases, while values below 1 indicate market troughs characterized by unrealized losses. The current ratio of 1.27 points to a balanced market structure with no strong signals of extreme valuation.

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