TL;DR

• Dogecoin’s RSI is climbing, but has not yet reached the level seen before past rallies.
• The current price setup closely matches DOGE’s 2015–2017 structure before it broke higher.
• $0.22 remains a key support zone that must hold for the trend to stay intact.

Monthly RSI Structure Points to Defined Market Phases

Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing a clear long-term pattern based on its monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI), according to analyst Trader Tardigrade. The chart separates the market into three stages: Accumulating, Hodling, and Selling zones.

Notably, the Accumulating zone appears when RSI is low, which has historically aligned with quiet price action and long periods of sideways trading. This was seen before major rallies in 2017 and 2021. The Hodling zone follows, where RSI begins to climb, and price momentum starts to build. The final phase is the Selling zone, reached when RSI spikes to extreme levels.

Historical data indicate that this area typically marks the peak of DOGE cycles. At the moment, RSI is rising but still below the Selling zone. Trader Tardigrade stated,

$Doge/monthly#Dogecoin monthly RSI offers a simple strategy:


– Buy in the Accumulating zone


– Hodl in the Hodling zone


– Sell only in the Selling zone

I just want to say:


Don’t sell any of your DOGE before the RSI reaches the Selling zone. pic.twitter.com/EXZxb1JUeV

— Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) September 26, 2025

This suggests that the current structure may still have room to move upward.

Price Action Repeats Earlier Breakout Pattern

A separate chart from the same analyst shows that DOGE may be repeating the price structure last seen between 2015 and 2017. In that cycle, the asset formed a base, broke above key resistance, and entered a strong trend. The 2025 breakout appears to be developing in a similar way, with resistance levels and pattern shape closely matching the earlier cycle.

DOGE was trading at $0.22 at press time. It has declined 4% in the past 24 hours and 19% over the last seven days. Daily trading volume is over $3.83 billion.

Support at $0.22 Remains Important for Short-Term Setup

Analyst Ali Martinez shared a daily chart showing DOGE inside a rising triangle. The lower trendline of the structure is near $0.22, which also matches the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.2288. According to Ali Martinez,

Dogecoin $DOGE must hold $0.22 for a potential rebound to the triangle’s x-axis at $0.29! pic.twitter.com/ZhgcCMAjue

— Ali (@ali_charts) September 26, 2025

The chart outlines a possible consolidation within the triangle, followed by an upward move if support holds. A drop below $0.22 could open the way for further losses toward $0.20 or $0.19.

Structure Holds, But Needs Higher Lows to Continue

Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that DOGE has moved steadily upward since April 2025, forming higher highs and higher lows. He noted that this has not been a smooth trend, but it remains intact. The price is currently above both the daily 200-day EMA at $0.22 and the 200-day MA at $0.20, which are key levels to maintain.

I think $DOGE summarizes the market pretty well the past few months.

Yes, most coins are up since the April lows, especially the majors. But as you can see, it is moving up very slowly making marginally higher highs and higher lows.

Technically this is an up trend but it… pic.twitter.com/k70Hs1WQQS

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) September 26, 2025

While gains have been limited, the trend remains positive as long as current support holds.

TL;DR

• Wyckoff Spring signals potential DOGE rebound, with short-term price projection targeting $0.25 resistance.
• Whale wallets holding 100M–1B DOGE increased share to 16.93%, the year’s highest level.
• Dogecoin active addresses spiked in May and June but settled back near 29,700 by September.

Wyckoff Pattern Points to Short-Term Recovery

Dogecoin is showing signs of following a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern on the 1-hour chart. Analysis shared by Trader Tardigrade shows the market moving through phases A and B, where support and resistance levels were tested repeatedly.

Notably, the current move appears to be Phase C, which includes a “Spring.” This is a dip below support that often clears weaker positions before a rebound. Price has bounced from this level, suggesting the possible start of Phase D. If the structure continues to unfold, Dogecoin may see a Last Point of Support followed by a Sign of Strength. The chart projection points to a potential push toward $0.25.

On the daily time frame, Dogecoin is trading inside a rising wedge pattern. The lower line has tracked higher lows since June, while the upper line connects the highs reached in May and September. Price recently pulled back after testing resistance near $0.30 to $0.32.

The projection shows price consolidating around $0.24 to $0.25 before another attempt to break higher. If the wedge holds, a retest of $0.30 is possible.

A drop below the lower wedge line would shift attention to $0.22 as support.

Large Holders Increase Supply Share

Santiment data shows shifts in Dogecoin supply held by major wallet groups. The 100 million to 1 billion DOGE group (yellow line) has been adding steadily since August 2025. Their share has risen to about 16.93% of supply, the highest level shown on the chart.

The 1 million to 10 million DOGE group (red line) expanded its share through September, peaking near 17.6%. Toward the end of the month, this group reduced slightly, suggesting some profit-taking. The data shows the largest whales continue to build positions while smaller groups are less consistent.

Active Addresses Return to Normal Range

Daily active addresses for Dogecoin usually sit between 20,000 and 120,000. Days in the middle of May and late June 2025 showed an exception when activity spiked to over 800,000 and 500,000 addresses, respectively.

By late September, the number fled back to around 29,700. This means that these spikes may have been short-term dirt, and in general, usage has creeped back into stable ranges.