Bitcoin

Bitcoin surges to $112K as Strategy adds 196 BTC, analysts eye $120K potential

Bitcoin hits $112k, fueled by institutional buying. Strategy added 196 BTC, increasing its holdings to 640,031 BTC. Analysts see potential for $120,000 but warn of volatility risks. Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to $112k, fueled by renewed institutional interest and a significant acquisition by Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Strategy acquires 196 BTC, holdings…

Bitcoin hits a 6-week high above $120,000, defying a government shutdown

Bitcoin hits $112k, fueled by institutional buying.
Strategy added 196 BTC, increasing its holdings to 640,031 BTC.
Analysts see potential for $120,000 but warn of volatility risks.

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to $112k, fueled by renewed institutional interest and a significant acquisition by Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

Strategy acquires 196 BTC, holdings hit 640,031

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has announced the acquisition of 196 Bitcoin for an undisclosed amount, bringing its total holdings to 640,031 BTC, according to a Form 8-K filing.

Strategy has acquired 196 BTC for ~$22.1 million at ~$113,048 per bitcoin. As of 9/28/2025, we hodl 640,031 $BTC acquired for ~$47.35 billion at ~$73,983 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC $STRK $STRF $STRD https://t.co/NnmLONBsRK

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) September 29, 2025

The purchase, funded through the company’s ATM offering programs, outlines Strategy’s position as the leading corporate Bitcoin treasury, with holdings valued at approximately $71.7 billion based on current market prices.

The acquisition follows a pattern of consistent buying, with Strategy adding 850 BTC on September 22, 2025, and 525 BTC on September 15, 2025, at an average price of $114,562 per BTC.

Michael Saylor, the Executive Chairman, has a strategy of leveraging equity and debt financing to accumulate BTC which has solidified the company’s role as a Bitcoin-backed treasury model.

This latest purchase concurs with Bitcoin’s price climbing to $112,500, reflecting a 2.9% increase from $109,525.50 three days prior.

Analysts on BTC price outlook

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory following its climb to $112,000.

The surge aligns with the Strategy’s aggressive accumulation and broader market momentum, but opinions vary on future movements.

Analysts have projected BTC could reach $150k-$200k in 2025, and institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors are seen as key tailwinds. However, some say volatility means bears may not be done yet.

QCP analysts shared their outlook

“After a volatile September, $BTC is still up more than 3% on the month. Options markets show conviction slowly returning, but the 115k level remains the hurdle to clear for a renewed uptrend.”

Bitcoin at ‘Buy’ for dip level?

According to QCP analysts, the crypto market is showing “signs of recovery” following the carnage seen the previous week. The shakeout that saw BTC trade to under $109k may nonetheless offer a buy-the-dip opportunity.

“Despite sizable ETF outflows, particularly on Friday, spot managed to hold sideways through the weekend. This points to quarter-end basis unwinds as a key driver of redemptions, with markets absorbing the selling pressure more smoothly than expected,” QCP wrote. “With spot rebounding, this week’s ETF flows could set the tone for institutional demand heading into a seasonally bullish month.”

Strategy’s consistent buying is seen as a bullish signal, with potential U.S. policies on digital assets influencing long-term price stability.

If bulls rally, Bitcoin’s ability to break past $117k will be crucial. The level marks a sizable supply wall area and will b pivotal for a breakout above $118k and retest of the $120k mark.

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The rally was broad-based, with other major tokens like Ether, XRP, and Solana all rising between 4 and 7 percent.

This is the market’s clear and unambiguous verdict on the chaos gripping the US capital.

A bet on a blind Fed, a wager on new money

The logic behind the rally is a bet on the second-order effects of the shutdown. With the government’s lights now off, the release of key economic data—most notably Friday’s all-important nonfarm payrolls report—will likely be delayed.

This data blackout will effectively blind the Federal Reserve, making it far more likely to proceed with its planned interest rate cuts.

“If ADP is a leading signal and the BLS print is delayed, the Fed is likely to deliver a 25 bp cut in October and pair it with guidance that keeps a second cut on the table by December,” said Matt Mena, a Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares.

This is the “positive liquidity impulse” that has the market so excited: an expansion of liquidity that makes it easier and cheaper to borrow money, a dynamic that encourages economic growth and, crucially, risk-taking in financial markets.

For some, this shutdown surge is more than just a temporary trade; it is a sign of a fundamental shift in the market’s DNA.

“The message is clear: with traditional data releases in flux and macro uncertainty running high, Bitcoin remains one of the few assets that thrives when the old playbook breaks down,” Mena noted.

“Investors should be watching this moment closely – it could mark the next explosive leg higher in crypto markets.”

The volatility trade: ‘options look cheap’

This expectation of an “explosive” move is now being actively priced into the derivatives market.

According to Greg Magadini, the Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, the long dry spell of low volatility may be about to end, and options are currently looking cheap.

“After a long ‘dry spell’ for BTC volatility, the US government shutdown could finally be the catalyst to make BTC move a lot,” Magadini told CoinDesk.

This, coupled with the steep contango in implied volatility term structure, makes options look cheap.

That “steep contango” means the market is expecting future volatility to be significantly higher than it is today, making near-term options a relative bargain.

Magadini highlighted the “long straddle”—a strategy that profits from a big price move in either direction—as a preferred way to play the impending volatility boom.

“These catalysts could either cause BTC to rally (as a dollar hedge) or crash (if risk assets panic),” he said, explaining why a bet on pure volatility, rather than direction, is so appealing at this uncertain juncture. The quiet days, it seems, are over.

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Bitcoin

Metaplanet’s Bitcoin holdings reach 30,823 BTC after strategic Q3 acquisition

Metaplanet acquired 5,288 BTC in Q3 2025; total holdings reach 30,823 BTC. Bitcoin Income Generation revenue jumps 115.7% to $16.16M. Long-term target: 210,000 BTC by 2027, backed by major institutional investors. Metaplanet has taken a bold step in expanding its Bitcoin treasury, acquiring an additional 5,288 BTC during the third quarter of 2025. This purchase…

Metaplanet acquired 5,288 BTC in Q3 2025; total holdings reach 30,823 BTC.
Bitcoin Income Generation revenue jumps 115.7% to $16.16M.
Long-term target: 210,000 BTC by 2027, backed by major institutional investors.

Metaplanet has taken a bold step in expanding its Bitcoin treasury, acquiring an additional 5,288 BTC during the third quarter of 2025.

This purchase boosts the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 30,823 BTC, which are currently valued at around $3.33 billion.

The acquisition was made at an average price of $116,870 per bitcoin, reflecting Metaplanet’s continued confidence in the cryptocurrency’s long-term potential.

CEO Simon Gerovich highlighted that this purchase signals their commitment to maximizing Bitcoin yield, which is expected to reach nearly 500% in 2025.

This fresh influx of Bitcoin has helped power a surge in Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Income Generation segment, which recorded quarterly revenue of $16.16 million, a striking increase of 115.7% compared to the previous quarter.

The company’s strategy to scale operations and deepen its Bitcoin treasury is already paying off, underpinning a much stronger financial outlook for the year.

Metaplanet revises 2025 forecasts

Thanks to the robust Q3 performance, Metaplanet has revised its full-year 2025 guidance with optimism.

Revenue projections now stand at $46.26 million, doubling prior estimates, while operating profit expectations have jumped 88% to $31.97 million.

Gerovich noted that these results prove Metaplanet’s operational scalability and bolster the company’s foundation for a planned issuance of preferred shares, which will support its broader Bitcoin Treasury strategy.

Despite this upbeat financial revision, Metaplanet’s stock fell 10% during Wednesday’s trading, closing at 516 yen.

Market reactions may reflect an adjustment to the company’s share valuation or investor caution amid macroeconomic factors impacting crypto-related assets.

Scaling beyond Bitcoin

Metaplanet’s growth strategy is not limited to Bitcoin accumulation.

The company recently launched Phase II of its expansion, which includes new income sources such as its Bitcoin.jp media platform and an upcoming Project Nova, aiming to create sustainable revenue streams beyond direct Bitcoin holdings.

Additionally, Metaplanet has attracted strong institutional backing, with Capital Group acquiring an 11.45% stake, alongside investors like Vanguard, JPMorgan, and State Street, reinforcing confidence in the company’s vision.

The firm also plans to fund its ambitious Bitcoin accumulation goals through perpetual preferred share issuances, designed to raise capital without diluting common equity.

CEO Gerovich has set a long-term target of acquiring 210,000 BTC by 2027, aiming to capture roughly 1% of the total global Bitcoin supply.

Bitcoin

ARK Invest Highlights Bitcoin’s On-Chain Strength for Q4 Gains Ahead

TLDR

ARK reports that institutional entities now hold 12.2% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
Bitcoin’s on-chain signals show strong demand with long-term holders maintaining positions.
Mid-sized investors have been adding to Bitcoin positions, supporting rally stability.
Macroeconomic shifts and easing inflation may further boost Bitcoin demand.

Bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain strong as the cryptocurrency enters the final quarter of 2025, according to ARK Invest. The firm notes that on-chain metrics, such as network activity, profitability, and supply distribution, are indicating a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s price performance. As institutional involvement grows and macroeconomic factors evolve, Bitcoin could experience further upward momentum, although some caution remains due to potential market volatility.

On-Chain Metrics Indicate Strong Demand

In ARK Invest’s recent Bitcoin Quarterly report, the firm pointed to positive on-chain signals that suggest Bitcoin’s fundamentals are holding firm. The data reveals that most of the Bitcoin in circulation is in profit, with long-term holders showing little indication of selling.

ARK Invest notes that this behavior has historically coincided with bull market phases. Additionally, the majority of Bitcoin is held by investors with a low propensity to sell, which has contributed to a more stable market.

The report also highlights the increasing role of mid-sized investors in recent months. These investors have been steadily adding to their Bitcoin positions, signaling renewed confidence in the market. Combined with a slowdown in selling from larger holders, this could suggest a more organic market rally, less reliant on speculative trading and more driven by long-term holders and institutional interest.

Institutional Adoption Reaches New Heights

ARK Invest also points to the continued growth of institutional participation in Bitcoin. The firm reports that institutional entities, including digital asset trusts and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), now hold over 12% of Bitcoin’s total supply. This marks a record level of institutional ownership and reflects Bitcoin’s increasing integration into traditional capital markets.

According to ARK, this rising institutional presence is beneficial for the market as it provides more stability and lessens the reliance on retail-driven volatility. Furthermore, regulated investment vehicles like ETFs and trusts continue to absorb new Bitcoin supply, which could result in a tighter available float. As more institutions add Bitcoin to their portfolios, the asset may become a more recognized component of diversified investment strategies, potentially driving further demand.

Macroeconomic Factors Could Support Growth

In addition to on-chain data and institutional involvement, ARK Invest highlights macroeconomic trends that could further benefit Bitcoin. The firm notes that inflation is under control and signs of a weakening labor market are encouraging a shift in Federal Reserve policy. This shift, along with possible government moves towards deregulation and tax reductions, could create a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

ARK suggests that these conditions, along with an improving macroeconomic backdrop, could lead to “productivity-led growth.” This environment has historically been supportive of risk assets, including Bitcoin, and could reinforce the positive signals already seen in the market. If these trends continue, Bitcoin’s demand could be further boosted as we approach the end of 2025.

Caution on Market Cycles

While ARK Invest maintains a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, the firm also cautions that timing will play a critical role in the market’s performance. The report notes that historical market cycles suggest there may be periods of increased volatility or consolidation. Although the fundamentals are strong, ARK warns that investors should be prepared for potential market swings as the market digests recent gains.

Despite this, ARK remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future, given the strong on-chain signals and institutional involvement. As we move into the final months of 2025, the firm believes that these factors could create a solid foundation for continued price appreciation. However, market participants should remain vigilant, as the timing of market cycles could bring both opportunities and challenges.

ARK Invest’s report emphasizes Bitcoin’s continued strength, both in terms of its on-chain metrics and growing institutional adoption. The firm believes these factors, combined with favorable macroeconomic conditions, set the stage for potential gains in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, investors should stay mindful of possible volatility as the market continues to evolve.

Kelvin Munene

Kelvin Munene is a crypto and finance journalist with over 5 years of experience in market analysis and expert commentary. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism and Actuarial Science from Mount Kenya University and is known for meticulous research in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and financial markets. His work has been featured in top publications including Coingape, Cryptobasic, MetaNews, Coinedition, and Analytics Insight. Kelvin specializes in uncovering emerging crypto trends and delivering data-driven analyses to help readers make informed decisions. Outside of work, he enjoys chess, traveling, and exploring new adventures.